2026 schedule

Rice Owls

1-7SOS #49

2026 season so far

Rice is 1-7 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21 and allowing 31.8 points per game (-10.8 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Rice ranks 124th of 139 FBS teams overall — 123rd on offense and 111th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at North Texas in Week 10. We project Rice 23, North Texas 40 — Rice wins 12% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Houston Christian Huskies
1-1 · SOS #39
Win 31-3
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Rice by 30.9
Total 48.1
DraftKings
RICE -22.5
Total 47.5
Final Rice by 28. Rice beat the spread. 34 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Rice -22.75 (open Rice -23.5) · O/U 47.5 · ML +1075 / -2200 · Rice 92% no-vig · model vs market +8.1 pts, +6 pct pts (Rice view)
ESPN+ First Community Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14 Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: missed (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2-0 · SOS #16
Loss 0-52
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 23.6
Total 49.8
DraftKings
ND -44.5
Total 54.5
Final Notre Dame by 52. Notre Dame beat the spread. 52 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -44.75 (open Notre Dame -44.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · model vs market -21.1 pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
Western Michigan Broncos
2-1 · SOS #92
Loss 21-28
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Rice by 1.4
Total 47.2
DraftKings
WMU -8.5
Total 43.5
Final Western Michigan by 7. Rice beat the spread. 49 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -8.5 (open Western Michigan -11.75) · O/U 43.5 (open 44.75) · ML -435 / +305 · Rice 23% no-vig · model vs market +9.9 pts, +30 pct pts (Rice view)
ESPN+ First Community Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
at
Fresno State Bulldogs
3-1 · SOS #80
Loss 24-38
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 18.1
Total 44.7
DraftKings
FRES -12.5
Total 43.5
Final Fresno State by 14. Fresno State beat the spread. 62 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Fresno State -12.25 (open Fresno State -13.75) · O/U 43.5 (open 44) · ML +405 / -542.5 · Fresno State 81% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +7 pct pts (Fresno State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 82°F, Wind 3 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFAT)
CW Valley Children's Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. Brown QB · Low rush yds 61 (avg 86) · 75% · 141 ✗Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · T. Byars RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 49) · 75% · 50 ✗Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · D. Hardeman Jr. RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 44) · 75% · 39 ✓
vs
UTSA Roadrunners
4-1 · SOS #72
Loss 14-16
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 14.2
Total 58.6
DraftKings
UTSA -11.5
Total 56.5
Final UTSA by 2. Rice beat the spread. 30 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -12 (open UTSA -11.75) · O/U 56.25 (open 53.5) · ML -457.5 / +345 · Rice 22% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -4 pct pts (Rice view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 86°F, Wind 13 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHOU)
ESPN+ First Community Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
M. Anderson WR · Low catches 3.1 (avg 4) · 67% · 4 ✗O. McCown QB · High pass yds 237 (avg 216) · 55% · 148 ✗
at
East Carolina Pirates
3-2 · SOS #98
Loss 12-28
Week 6
Our number· pregame
East Carolina by 12.3
Total 46.7
DraftKings
ECU -10
Total 46.5
Final East Carolina by 16. East Carolina beat the spread. 40 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Carolina -10 · O/U 46.25 (open 48.75) · ML +302.5 / -395 · East Carolina 76% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +3 pct pts (East Carolina view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 77°F, Wind 10 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPGV)
ESPN+ Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
J. Brown QB · Low rush yds 81 (avg 99) · 69% · 19 ✓
vs
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
4-3 · SOS #89
Loss 17-38
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Tulsa by 1.5
Total 48.7
DraftKings
TLSA -3.5
Total 47.5
Final Tulsa by 21. Tulsa beat the spread. 55 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tulsa -4 (open Tulsa -3.5) · O/U 47 (open 46.25) · ML -191.5 / +162 · Rice 37% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +9 pct pts (Rice view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 14 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHOU)
ESPN+ First Community Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: missed (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: missed (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
at
Florida Atlantic Owls
5-2 · SOS #119
Loss 49-51
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Florida Atlantic by 8.4
Total 56.6
DraftKings
FAU -9.5
Total 55.5
Final Florida Atlantic by 2. Rice beat the spread. 100 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida Atlantic -9.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +270 / -350 · Florida Atlantic 75% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, -4 pct pts (Florida Atlantic view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 82°F, Wind 17 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPMP)
ESPNU Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
K. Valsin WR · TD threat 66% · 0 ✗
at
North Texas Mean Green
5-2 · SOS #76
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 23-40 · 12%
Our number
North Texas by 17
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPNU DATCU Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
J. White RB · TD threat 87%G. Ochoa QB · Low rush yds 54 (avg 70) · 76%J. Stevenson WR · TD threat 66%
vs
Tulane Green Wave
3-4 · SOS #31
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 18-25 · 34%
Our number
Tulane by 7
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
First Community Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 217 (avg 155) · 72%G. Ochoa QB · Low rush yds 67 (avg 70) · 69%
at
Temple Owls
2-5 · SOS #84
Fri, Nov 20, 12:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 24-28 · 39%
Our number
Temple by 4
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Lincoln Financial Field
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
P. Clarke TE · Low rec yds 42 (avg 67) · 78%G. Ochoa QB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 70) · 77%A. Sheppard QB · High pass yds 171 (avg 161) · 54%
vs
Army Black Knights
5-2 · SOS #102
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 21-32 · 23%
Our number
Army by 11
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
First Community Stadium
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Byars RB · Low rush yds 65 (avg 58) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · D. Hardeman Jr. RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 37) · 77%G. Ochoa QB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 70) · 74%

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Rice Owls stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-13.1

123rd in FBS

Adj. offense

18.7

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

31.8

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	21.0	116 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	31.8	121 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.93	77 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.77	81 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	283.4	4 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	74.4	136 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	188.0	108 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	201.4	57 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.50	25 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.25	138 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.50	106 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.75	64 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.10	59 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.12	108 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	41.8%	85 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	43.1%	96 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	10.8%	119 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	13.6%	107 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	13.1%	91 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	11.6%	33 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.38	122 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.10	100 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 25	135 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 35	137 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	60.4	117 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.20	11 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.21	135 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.08	92 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.15	103 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	45.7%	56 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	29.0%	136 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	16.8%	68 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	25.0%	124 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	31.7%	101 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	33.0%	125 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	44.0%	116 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	50.0%	119 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	61.8%	83 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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