Matchup analysis
Our model projects Army 32, Rice 21 at First Community Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Army wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.2 points and 52.2 combined points.
Army is 5-2 against the 107th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.3 and allowing 22.1 points per game (+13.2 per game). Rice is 1-7 against the 66th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21 and allowing 31.8 points per game (-10.8 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (64th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) against Rice's below-average defense (111th). Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd) should limit Rice's struggling offense (123rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Army by 34 and Rice by 11 about 80% of the time.
Rice gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Army is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Army vs Rice: stat comparison
| Stat | Army | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.3#32 | 21.0#116 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.1#55 | 31.8#121 |
| Yards per play | 6.34#49 | 5.93#77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.49#124 | 5.77#81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 337.0#2 | 283.4#4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 73.1#137 | 74.4#136 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.3#72 | 188.0#108 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 217.1#91 | 201.4#57 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.29#9 | 0.50#25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#126 | 0.25#138 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#123 | 1.50#106 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.43#4 | 1.75#64 |
| Stat | Army | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#8 | +0.10#59 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#131 | +0.12#108 |
| Success rate | 49.4%#14 | 41.8%#85 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#112 | 43.1%#96 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#85 | 10.8%#119 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#123 | 13.6%#107 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5%#107 | 13.1%#91 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.5%#7 | 11.6%#33 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.76#24 | 3.38#122 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.59#48 | 4.10#100 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#59 | own 25#135 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#23 | own 35#137 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7#80 | 60.4#117 |
| Stat | Army | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.26#3 | +0.20#11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#37 | -0.21#135 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18#131 | +0.08#92 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25#124 | +0.15#103 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.8%#9 | 45.7%#56 |
| Passing success rate | 42.5%#63 | 29.0%#136 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.4%#4 | 16.8%#68 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.4%#51 | 25.0%#124 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.9%#128 | 31.7%#101 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.2%#14 | 33.0%#125 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.3%#127 | 44.0%#116 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.1%#17 | 50.0%#119 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.2%#43 | 61.8%#83 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Army schedule · Rice schedule · all Week 13 projections
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