Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rice 24.3, Western Michigan 22.9 at First Community Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Rice wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 47.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Western Michigan is 1-1, scoring 30.5 and allowing 13.5 points per game (+17 per game). Rice is 1-1, scoring 15.5 and allowing 27.5 points per game (-12 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.4 points against an average defense) against Rice's below-average defense (91st). Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th) should limit Rice's struggling offense (133rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Michigan by 21 and Rice by 24 about 80% of the time.
Rice gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Western Michigan would be favoured by 0.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Western Michigan 28, Rice 21. Western Michigan won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 8.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Michigan / Rice) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Michigan -11.75 → Western Michigan -8.5 | 44.75 → 43.5 | -435 / +305 |
| Bovada | Western Michigan -12 → Western Michigan -8.5 | 44 → 43.5 | -510 / +325 |
| DraftKings | Western Michigan -11.5 → Western Michigan -8.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | -360 / +285 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rice win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Rice -1.5 | 47.2 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Western Michigan -8.5 | 43.5 | 23% |
| Blended projection | Western Michigan -7 | 45.0 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rice win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 23% · difference +30 pts
- Margin
- model Rice -1.4 · market Western Michigan -8.5 · difference +9.9 pts (Rice view)
- Total
- model 47.2 · market 43.5 · difference +3.7
Model margin is 9.9 pts more toward Rice than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Michigan 22.9, Rice 24.3 | Rice 54%wrong winner | 8.4 | 1.8 |
| New formula | Western Michigan 26.2, Rice 19.1 | Western Michigan 67%right winner | 0.1 | 3.7 |
Final: Western Michigan 28, Rice 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Michigan vs Rice: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Western Michigan | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.5#74 | 15.5#131 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.5#41 | 27.5#105 |
| Yards per play | 5.20#119 | 5.01#122 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99#56 | 6.20#108 |
| Rushing yards per game | 152.0#92 | 257.5#14 |
| Net passing yards per game | 168.0#111 | 43.0#138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 113.0#52 | 137.5#83 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.5#86 | 243.5#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#30 | 0.00#20 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#119 | 0.50#103 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#123 | 1.50#89 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#79 | 0.50#23 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#96 | +0.09#74 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#87 | -0.03#48 |
| Success rate | 41.3%#96 | 42.4%#81 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#90 | 45.7%#123 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#98 | 8.7%#125 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#38 | 17.1%#136 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#107 | 11.4%#116 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#53 | 6.5%#3 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.27#68 | 3.88#94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87#72 | 3.69#63 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#29 | own 26#116 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#8 | own 34#120 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.5#95 | 60.0#102 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#85 | +0.18#22 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#91 | -0.35#135 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#99 | -0.12#27 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#76 | +0.07#86 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.3%#92 | 48.7%#48 |
| Passing success rate | 36.6%#107 | 12.5%#138 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#56 | 11.3%#15 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.5%#99 | 22.2%#121 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.2%#64 | 26.1%#45 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2%#56 | 48.1%#48 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.7%#118 | 44.0%#107 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.2%#95 | 60.0%#92 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.0%#79 | 66.7%#99 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Michigan schedule · Rice schedule · all Week 3 projections
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