Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tulane 25, Rice 18 at First Community Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Tulane wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.4 points and 42.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Tulane is 3-4 against the 31st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-4.3 per game). Rice is 1-7 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21 and allowing 31.8 points per game (-10.8 per game).
Tulane's below-average offense (112th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense) meets Rice's below-average defense (111th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulane puts up. Expect Rice to find it hard going: Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) outranks Rice's struggling offense (123rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulane by 29 and Rice by 16 about 80% of the time.
Rice gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tulane is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Tulane vs Rice: stat comparison
| Stat | Tulane | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3#120 | 21.0#116 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6#74 | 31.8#121 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#84 | 5.93#77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#111 | 5.77#81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.0#81 | 283.4#4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.6#111 | 74.4#136 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 223.3#132 | 188.0#108 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.0#76 | 201.4#57 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#68 | 0.50#25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#82 | 0.25#138 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#87 | 1.50#106 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#112 | 1.75#64 |
| Stat | Tulane | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#110 | +0.10#59 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#100 | +0.12#108 |
| Success rate | 32.5%#137 | 41.8%#85 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3%#97 | 43.1%#96 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#96 | 10.8%#119 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#90 | 13.6%#107 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#106 | 13.1%#91 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9%#125 | 11.6%#33 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.97#131 | 3.38#122 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.36#27 | 4.10#100 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#119 | own 25#135 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#80 | own 35#137 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#126 | 60.4#117 |
| Stat | Tulane | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#68 | +0.20#11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#122 | -0.21#135 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#119 | +0.08#92 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#68 | +0.15#103 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.5%#138 | 45.7%#56 |
| Passing success rate | 33.5%#132 | 29.0%#136 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#111 | 16.8%#68 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.9%#130 | 25.0%#124 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#113 | 31.7%#101 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8%#95 | 33.0%#125 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.0%#136 | 44.0%#116 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.7%#130 | 50.0%#119 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.1%#40 | 61.8%#83 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulane schedule · Rice schedule · all Week 11 projections
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