2026 schedule

Tulane Green Wave

3-4SOS #50

2026 season so far

Tulane is 3-4 against the 50th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-4.3 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Tulane ranks 93rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 112th on offense and 58th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Charlotte in Week 9. We project Tulane 31, Charlotte 16 — Tulane wins 83% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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at
Duke Blue Devils
1-0 · SOS #90
Loss 3-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Duke by 4.3
Total 58.9
DraftKings
DUKE -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Duke by 14. Duke beat the spread. 20 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -8.75 (open Duke -8.5) · O/U 51 (open 53.5) · ML +325 / -430 · Duke 77% no-vig · model vs market -4.4 pts, -16 pct pts (Duke view)
ACC Network/ACCNX Wallace Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
vs
South Alabama Jaguars
1-1 · SOS #103
Win 28-24
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Tulane by 10.5
Total 47.9
DraftKings
TULN -9.5
Total 48.5
Final Tulane by 4. South Alabama beat the spread. 52 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tulane -9.5 (open Tulane -10) · O/U 48 (open 53) · ML +300 / -390 · Tulane 76% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, -1 pct pts (Tulane view)
ESPN+ Yulman Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
at
Kansas State Wildcats
3-0 · SOS #83
Loss 20-31
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Kansas State by 8.5
Total 49.7
DraftKings
KSU -20.5
Total 49.5
Final Kansas State by 11. Tulane beat the spread. 51 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kansas State -20.5 (open Kansas State -20) · O/U 49.5 · ML +787.5 / -1375 · Kansas State 89% no-vig · model vs market -12.0 pts, -18 pct pts (Kansas State view)
ESPN2 Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
vs
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
1-3 · SOS #93
Win 24-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Tulane by 18.9
Total 49.5
DraftKings
TULN -17.5
Total 52.5
Final Tulane by 3. Southern Miss beat the spread. 45 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tulane -17.75 · O/U 52.5 (open 53) · ML +662.5 / -1075 · Tulane 87% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Tulane view)
Game-time weather: 81°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSY)
ESPN+ Yulman Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
S. Robinson RB · TD threat 76% · 0 ✗M. Sanders WR · Low rec yds 57 (avg 78) · 72% · 69 ✓K. Semonza QB · High pass yds 201 (avg 172) · 58% · 129 ✗
at
Army Black Knights
3-2 · SOS #107
Loss 17-20
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Army by 4.7
Total 45.3
DraftKings
ARMY -5.5
Total 48.5
Final Army by 3. Tulane beat the spread. 37 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Army -5.5 (open Army -3) · O/U 48.5 (open 47) · ML +152.5 / -182.5 · Army 62% no-vig · model vs market -0.8 pts, +0 pct pts (Army view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 5 mph.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSWF)
CBSSN Michie Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
D. Hill WR · Low rec yds 43 (avg 56) · 72% · 54 ✓D. Hill WR · Low catches 3.6 (avg 4) · 65% · 5 ✗
vs
Memphis Tigers
5-2 · SOS #104
Win 31-17
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Memphis by 4.2
Total 49.2
DraftKings
MEM -6.5
Total 55.5
Final Tulane by 14. Tulane beat the spread. 48 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Memphis -6.5 (open Memphis -7) · O/U 55.75 (open 53.5) · ML -264 / +215 · Tulane 30% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +9 pct pts (Tulane view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 83°F, Wind 5 mph NE, 7% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 11, 8:43 AM EDT · last stored copy
ESPN Yulman Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
J. Carter RB · TD threat 79% · 0 ✗H. Tipton TE · Low rec yds 38 (avg 61) · 78% · 13 ✓K. Semonza QB · High pass yds 180 (avg 161) · 55% · did not play
vs
UTSA Roadrunners
7-1 · SOS #73
Loss 19-42
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Tulane by 0.7
Total 51.3
DraftKings
UTSA -3
Total 52.5
Final UTSA by 23. UTSA beat the spread. 61 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -3 · O/U 52.5 · ML -145 / +122 · Tulane 43% no-vig · model vs market +3.7 pts, +9 pct pts (Tulane view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSY)
ESPNU Yulman Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Fav vs pass-poor dog, true total2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 6 misses (79% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 10-2) · Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: missed (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
O. McCown QB · High pass yds 237 (avg 225) · 53% · 173 ✗
at
Charlotte 49ers
1-6 · SOS #80
Fri, Oct 30, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 31-16 · 83%
Our number
Tulane by 15
Total 47
DraftKings
TULN -10
Total 46.5
We're 5 points higher on Tulane than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Tulane -10.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML -412.5 / +317.5 · Charlotte 23% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, -6 pct pts (Charlotte view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 72°F, Wind 1 mph NNE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN2 Jerry Richardson Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank Fav vs pass-poor dog, true total2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 6 misses (79% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 10-2) · Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · K. Alexander RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 34) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · H. Rutledge RB · Low rush yds 67 (avg 47) · 77%T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 234 (avg 155) · 76%
vs
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
4-4 · SOS #98
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 25-23 · 56%
Our number
Tulane by 2
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPNU Yulman Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 212 (avg 155) · 70%
at
Rice Owls
1-7 · SOS #66
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 25-18 · 66%
Our number
Tulane by 7
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
First Community Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 217 (avg 155) · 72%G. Ochoa QB · Low rush yds 67 (avg 70) · 69%
vs
North Texas Mean Green
5-2 · SOS #84
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 27-32 · 37%
Our number
North Texas by 5
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Yulman Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
J. White RB · TD threat 87%T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 219 (avg 155) · 72%J. Stevenson WR · TD threat 67%
at
South Florida Bulls
5-2 · SOS #133
Fri, Nov 27 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 18-24 · 34%
Our number
South Florida by 6
Total 42
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Raymond James Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
D. Crowther RB · TD threat 73%T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 195 (avg 155) · 65%M. Van Buren Jr. QB · High pass yds 200 (avg 181) · 56%

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Tulane Green Wave stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-4.6

92nd in FBS

Adj. offense

20.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

25.4

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	20.3	120 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	24.6	74 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.87	84 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.21	111 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	162.0	81 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	184.6	111 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	223.3	132 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	209.0	76 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.86	68 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.86	82 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.86	87 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.43	112 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.01	110 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.09	100 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	32.5%	137 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	43.3%	97 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	11.7%	96 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	12.8%	90 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	12.6%	106 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	15.9%	125 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	2.97	131 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.36	27 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 27	119 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 29	80 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	59.0	126 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.08	68 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.05	122 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.13	119 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.04	68 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	31.5%	138 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	33.5%	132 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	19.8%	111 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	23.9%	130 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	33.1%	113 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	37.8%	95 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	51.0%	136 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	46.7%	130 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	53.1%	40 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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