Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tulane 31, Charlotte 16 at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Tulane wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.6 points and 47.2 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Tulane is 3-4 against the 50th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-4.3 per game). Charlotte is 1-6 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.1 and allowing 40.6 points per game (-21.5 per game).
Tulane's below-average offense (112th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Charlotte's struggling defense (137th); that mismatch is where most of Tulane's projected points come from. Expect Charlotte to find it hard going: Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) outranks Charlotte's struggling offense (135th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulane by 37 and Charlotte by 8 about 80% of the time.
Charlotte gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tulane is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tulane / Charlotte) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tulane -10.5 | 46.5 | -412.5 / +317.5 |
| DraftKings | Tulane -10 | 46.5 | -395 / +310 |
| BetRivers | Tulane -11.5 | 46.5 | -455 / +330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Tulane -11.5 | 46.5 | -450 / +325 |
| theScore Bet | Tulane -10.5 | 46.5 | -400 / +300 |
| FanDuel | Tulane -10.5 | 46.5 | -430 / +330 |
| BetMGM | Tulane -10.5 | 46.5 | -425 / +333 |
| Pinnacle | Tulane -10.5 | 46.5 | -394 / +308 |
| Bovada | Tulane -10.5 | 46.5 | -400 / +300 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Charlotte win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tulane -14.5 | 47.2 | 17% |
| Market consensus | Tulane -10.5 | 46.5 | 23% |
| Blended projection | Tulane -11 | 47.6 | 22% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Charlotte win probability
- model 17% · market (no-vig) 23% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Tulane -14.6 · market Tulane -10.5 · difference -4.1 pts (Charlotte view)
- Total
- model 47.2 · market 46.5 · difference +0.7
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Charlotte 23%.
Model margin is 4.1 pts more toward Tulane than the market.
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Tulane vs Charlotte: stat comparison
| Stat | Tulane | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3#120 | 19.1#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6#74 | 40.6#137 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#84 | 5.83#87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#111 | 6.55#126 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.0#81 | 123.6#125 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.6#111 | 208.1#84 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 223.3#132 | 197.9#120 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.0#76 | 260.7#127 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#68 | 1.71#136 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#82 | 0.29#137 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#87 | 1.57#102 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#112 | 1.71#60 |
| Stat | Tulane | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#110 | -0.03#126 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#100 | +0.23#135 |
| Success rate | 32.5%#137 | 37.6%#127 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3%#97 | 48.7%#133 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#96 | 13.8%#39 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#90 | 14.0%#117 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#106 | 11.4%#122 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9%#125 | 14.4%#101 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.97#131 | 3.38#121 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.36#27 | 5.04#135 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#119 | own 27#115 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#80 | own 34#135 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#126 | 56.9#137 |
| Stat | Tulane | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#68 | -0.01#114 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#122 | -0.05#121 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#119 | +0.11#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#68 | +0.35#135 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.5%#138 | 35.9%#132 |
| Passing success rate | 33.5%#132 | 39.1%#98 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#111 | 25.0%#137 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.9%#130 | 27.8%#106 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#113 | 39.5%#133 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8%#95 | 32.9%#127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.0%#136 | 45.5%#124 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.7%#130 | 62.5%#65 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.1%#40 | 75.0%#131 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulane schedule · Charlotte schedule · all Week 9 projections
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