2026 schedule

Charlotte 49ers

1-6SOS #80

2026 season so far

Charlotte is 1-6 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.1 and allowing 40.6 points per game (-21.5 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Charlotte ranks 137th of 139 FBS teams overall — 135th on offense and 137th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: vs Tulane in Week 9. We project Charlotte 16, Tulane 31 — Charlotte wins 17% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
The Citadel Bulldogs
1-1 · SOS #10
Loss 41-43
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Charlotte by 21.8
Total 47.6
DraftKings
CLT -20.5
Total 49.5
Final The Citadel by 2. The Citadel beat the spread. 84 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Charlotte -20.5 (open Charlotte -17.75) · O/U 49.25 (open 46.5) · ML +850 / -1525 · Charlotte 90% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +3 pct pts (Charlotte view)
ESPN+ Jerry Richardson Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
at
#9 Ole Miss Rebels
2-0 · SOS #6
Loss 9-41
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Ole Miss by 24.1
Total 57.7
DraftKings
MISS -44.5
Total 59.5
Final Ole Miss by 32. Charlotte beat the spread. 50 points — under the 59.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ole Miss -44.5 (open Ole Miss -47) · O/U 59.5 (open 61.5) · model vs market -20.4 pts (Ole Miss view)
ESPN2 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
App State Mountaineers
3-0 · SOS #124
Loss 21-26
Week 3
Our number· pregame
App State by 13.9
Total 56.9
DraftKings
APP -16.5
Total 52.5
Final App State by 5. Charlotte beat the spread. 47 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: App State -16.25 (open App State -20) · O/U 52.5 (open 52) · ML +725 / -1300 · App State 88% no-vig · model vs market -2.4 pts, -6 pct pts (App State view)
ESPN+ Kidd Brewer Stadium
vs
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
3-1 · SOS #110
Loss 7-34
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Louisiana by 6.9
Total 55.7
DraftKings
UL -9.5
Total 49.5
Final Louisiana by 27. Louisiana beat the spread. 41 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisiana -9.25 (open Louisiana -12.25) · O/U 49.5 (open 51.25) · ML -405 / +310 · Charlotte 23% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +9 pct pts (Charlotte view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJQF)
ESPN+ Jerry Richardson Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
L. Winfield QB · Low rush yds 66 (avg 89) · 71% · 28 ✓J. Hampton WR · Low catches 4.4 (avg 5.3) · 68% · 4 ✓J. Barnes WR · Low catches 5.5 (avg 6.7) · 67% · 5 ✓
vs
Memphis Tigers
4-1 · SOS #104
Loss 8-59
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Memphis by 16.1
Total 55.9
DraftKings
MEM -18.5
Total 52.5
Final Memphis by 51. Memphis beat the spread. 67 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Memphis -19.5 (open Memphis -21) · O/U 52.25 (open 54.25) · ML -1300 / +750 · Charlotte 11% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +3 pct pts (Charlotte view)
Game-time weather: Rain, 75°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJQF)
ESPN+ Jerry Richardson Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
J. Carter RB · TD threat 77% · 0 ✗H. Tipton TE · Low rec yds 50 (avg 77) · 77% · 60 ✓J. Carter RB · Low rush yds 91 (avg 109) · 70% · 76 ✓
at
North Texas Mean Green
4-2 · SOS #84
Loss 10-50
Week 6
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 26.8
Total 64.6
DraftKings
UNT -27.5
Total 58.5
Final North Texas by 40. North Texas beat the spread. 60 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Texas -27.75 · O/U 58.25 (open 58.5) · ML +1500 / -4750 · North Texas 94% no-vig · model vs market -0.9 pts, +2 pct pts (North Texas view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDTO)
ESPN+ DATCU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Alexander RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 40) · 78% · 15 ✓J. White RB · TD threat 90% · 1 ✓T. Jackson QB · High pass yds 332 (avg 304) · 55% · 349 ✓
at
Temple Owls
2-5 · SOS #87
Win 38-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Temple by 18.9
Total 54.1
DraftKings
TEM -17.5
Total 47.5
Final Charlotte by 7. Charlotte beat the spread. 69 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Temple -18.5 (open Temple -23.25) · O/U 46.75 (open 50) · ML +900 / -1775 · Temple 90% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, -1 pct pts (Temple view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 52°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHL)
ESPN+ Lincoln Financial Field
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missed
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: missed (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank No-pass-rush dog vs pass-soft fav2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 15 hits, 10 misses (60% hit rate) over 25 graded gamesUnderdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=25; wk 5–7 8-4) · Underdog sacks: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing yards allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · K. Alexander RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 36) · 77% · 20 ✓
vs
Tulane Green Wave
3-4 · SOS #50
Fri, Oct 30, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 16-31 · 17%
Our number
Tulane by 15
Total 47
DraftKings
TULN -10
Total 46.5
We're 5 points higher on Tulane than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tulane -10.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML -412.5 / +317.5 · Charlotte 23% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, -6 pct pts (Charlotte view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 72°F, Wind 1 mph NNE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN2 Jerry Richardson Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank Fav vs pass-poor dog, true total2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 6 misses (79% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 10-2) · Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · K. Alexander RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 34) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · H. Rutledge RB · Low rush yds 67 (avg 47) · 77%T. Johnson QB · High pass yds 234 (avg 155) · 76%
at
UAB Blazers
4-3 · SOS #94
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 21-32 · 24%
Our number
UAB by 11
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Protective Stadium
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · K. Alexander RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 34) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · H. Rutledge RB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 47) · 77%R. Burton QB · High pass yds 195 (avg 169) · 59%
vs
East Carolina Pirates
3-4 · SOS #95
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 18-35 · 12%
Our number
East Carolina by 17
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jerry Richardson Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
at
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
4-4 · SOS #98
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 18-38 · 10%
Our number
Tulsa by 20
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
H. A. Chapman Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
B. Hayes QB · High pass yds 258 (avg 224) · 55%
vs
Navy Midshipmen
2-5 · SOS #99
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 19-36 · 12%
Our number
Navy by 17
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jerry Richardson Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Alexander RB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 34) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · H. Rutledge RB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 47) · 78%B. Woodson QB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 77) · 74%

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Charlotte 49ers stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-21.8

136th in FBS

Adj. offense

16.4

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

38.2

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	19.1	127 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	40.6	137 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.83	87 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.55	126 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	123.6	125 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	208.1	84 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	197.9	120 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	260.7	127 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.71	136 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.29	137 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.57	102 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.71	60 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.03	126 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.23	135 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	37.6%	127 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	48.7%	133 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.8%	39 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	14.0%	117 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	11.4%	122 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	14.4%	101 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.38	121 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	5.04	135 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 27	115 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 34	135 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	56.9	137 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.01	114 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.05	121 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.11	109 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.35	135 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	35.9%	132 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	39.1%	98 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	25.0%	137 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	27.8%	106 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	39.5%	133 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	32.9%	127 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	45.5%	124 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	62.5%	65 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	75.0%	131 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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