Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ole Miss 40.9, Charlotte 16.8 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Ole Miss wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.1 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Charlotte is 0-1, scoring 41 and allowing 43 points per game (-2 per game). Ole Miss (No. 9) is 1-0, scoring 41 and allowing 38 points per game (+3 per game).
Ole Miss's strong defense (31st) should limit Charlotte's struggling offense (129th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ole Miss's elite offense (11th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.4 points against an average defense) against Charlotte's struggling defense (137th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ole Miss by 2 and Ole Miss by 47 about 80% of the time.
Ole Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ole Miss by about 22. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.9 points and the total by 7.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Charlotte / Ole Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ole Miss -47 → Ole Miss -44.5 | 61.5 → 59.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Ole Miss -46.5 → Ole Miss -44.5 | 61.5 → 59.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Ole Miss -47.5 → Ole Miss -44.5 | 61.5 → 59.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ole Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ole Miss -24 | 57.6 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Ole Miss -44.5 | 59.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Ole Miss -41.5 | 59.4 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ole Miss win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Ole Miss -24.1 · market Ole Miss -44.5 · difference -20.4 pts (Ole Miss view)
- Total
- model 57.6 · market 59.5 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 20.4 pts more toward Charlotte than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Charlotte 16.8, Ole Miss 40.9 | Ole Miss 94%right winner | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| New formula | Charlotte 11.7, Ole Miss 53.6 | Ole Miss 99%right winner | 9.9 | 15.3 |
Final: Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Charlotte vs Ole Miss: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Charlotte | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.3#133 | 36.9#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.3#131 | 21.1#37 |
| Yards per play | 4.99#129 | 6.86#16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.48#125 | 5.45#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 89.7#136 | 182.8#50 |
| Net passing yards per game | 209.6#90 | 317.9#3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.5#120 | 165.9#77 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 264.9#128 | 193.7#34 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67#129 | 0.87#41 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92#86 | 0.73#116 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08#129 | 2.13#57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33#109 | 1.20#18 |
| Stat | Charlotte | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.20#136 | +0.12#23 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#121 | +0.03#86 |
| Success rate | 34.0%#135 | 47.8%#16 |
| Success rate allowed | 53.3%#136 | 40.1%#48 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#120 | 14.2%#21 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1%#119 | 11.5%#46 |
| Havoc rate | 8.3%#134 | 12.0%#82 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2%#114 | 10.6%#26 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.02#130 | 4.62#14 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.16#104 | 3.38#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#114 | own 29#103 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#118 | own 28#28 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.0#128 | 73.0#9 |
| Stat | Charlotte | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.32#136 | +0.04#65 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#112 | +0.21#16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#113 | +0.12#126 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#116 | -0.05#42 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.3%#136 | 45.1%#50 |
| Passing success rate | 34.6%#124 | 50.5%#6 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.8%#129 | 20.2%#102 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7%#131 | 38.4%#8 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.6%#122 | 30.4%#81 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.7%#120 | 43.1%#49 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.1%#123 | 38.5%#50 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.4%#127 | 65.3%#45 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 78.8%#134 | 55.0%#33 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charlotte schedule · Ole Miss schedule · all Week 2 projections
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