2026 schedule
Ole Miss Rebels
2026 season so far
Ole Miss (No. 12) is 5-2 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Ole Miss ranks 10th of 139 FBS teams overall — 6th on offense and 23rd on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs Auburn in Week 9. We project Ole Miss 35, Auburn 21 — Ole Miss wins 83% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
#24 Louisville Cardinals
0-1 · SOS #17
Win 41-38
Week 1
Our number· model now
Ole Miss by 9
Total 65
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 3. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ABC Nissan Stadium - vs
Charlotte 49ers
0-2 · SOS #79
Win 41-9
Week 2
Our number· model now
Ole Miss by 44
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 32. 50 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN2 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - vs
#7 LSU Tigers
2-1 · SOS #18
Win 32-24
Week 3
Our number· model now
LSU by 1
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 8. 56 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ABC Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - at
#21 Florida Gators
4-0 · SOS #11
Loss 28-52
Week 4
Our number· model now
Ole Miss by 4
Total 66
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida by 24. 80 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ABC Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - at
Vanderbilt Commodores
3-3 · SOS #16
Win 52-17
Week 6
Our number· model now
Ole Miss by 15
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 35. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN/Disney+ FirstBank Stadium - vs
#13 Missouri Tigers
5-2 · SOS #28
Win 31-3
Week 7
Our number· model now
Ole Miss by 9
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 28. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SEC Network Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - at
#19 Texas Longhorns
5-2 · SOS #1
Loss 27-34
Week 8
Our number· model now
Texas by 3
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas by 7. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ABC DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - vs
Auburn Tigers
4-3 · SOS #3
Sat, Oct 31, 4:45 PM
Week 9
Proj 35-21 · 83%
Our number
Ole Miss by 14
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SEC Network Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - vs
#3 Georgia Bulldogs
6-1 · SOS #48
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 28-33 · 38%
Our number
Georgia by 5
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - at
Oklahoma Sooners
4-3 · SOS #8
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 26-23 · 59%
Our number
Ole Miss by 3
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) - vs
Wofford Terriers
5-3 · SOS #120
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 51-3 · 100%
Our number
Ole Miss by 48
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SECN+ Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - vs
Mississippi State Bulldogs
4-3 · SOS #5
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 41-26 · 85%
Our number
Ole Miss by 15
Total 67
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ABC Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Ole Miss Rebels stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+17.8
11th in FBS
Adj. offense
38.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
20.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 36.0 | 24 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 25.3 | 79 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.28 | 51 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.90 | 87 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 158.3 | 86 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 277.4 | 19 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 179.0 | 100 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 230.7 | 103 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.29 | 120 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.14 | 34 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.71 | 93 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.86 | 8 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.18 | 26 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.09 | 94 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 48.0% | 24 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.5% | 84 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.2% | 79 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.7% | 108 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.0% | 95 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 9.9% | 10 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.02 | 9 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.00 | 88 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 28 | 113 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 29 | 72 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.4 | 31 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.17 | 21 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.19 | 36 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.12 | 114 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.05 | 74 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.9% | 21 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 47.5% | 30 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.4% | 37 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 38.0% | 16 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.6% | 56 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 46.1% | 31 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 43.1% | 112 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 84.6% | 1 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 50.0% | 31 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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