Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ole Miss 50, Wofford 4 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Ole Miss wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 46.5 points and 54.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Wofford is 5-3 against the 120th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+2.9 per game). Ole Miss (No. 12) is 5-2 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.7 per game).
Wofford plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Ole Miss's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ole Miss by 24 and Ole Miss by 69 about 80% of the time.
Ole Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ole Miss by about 44.4. The game is on SECN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Wofford vs Ole Miss: stat comparison
| Stat | Wofford | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.0 | 36.0#24 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 25.3#79 |
| Yards per play | 5.88 | 6.28#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72 | 5.90#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 131.0 | 158.3#86 |
| Net passing yards per game | 209.4 | 277.4#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.5 | 179.0#100 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.8 | 230.7#103 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.29#120 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38 | 1.14#34 |
| Sacks per game | 0.75 | 1.71#93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.63 | 0.86#8 |
| Stat | Wofford | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.18#26 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.09#94 |
| Success rate | 38.7% | 48.0%#24 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.4% | 42.5%#84 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% | 12.2%#79 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 13.7%#108 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9% | 13.0%#95 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7% | 9.9%#10 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38 | 5.02#9 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.72 | 4.00#88 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | own 28#113 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | own 29#72 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9 | 69.4#31 |
| Stat | Wofford | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.17#21 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.19#36 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.12#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11 | +0.05#74 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.1% | 48.9%#21 |
| Passing success rate | 36.8% | 47.5%#30 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2% | 15.4%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3% | 38.0%#16 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.2% | 28.6%#56 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.3% | 46.1%#31 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4% | 43.1%#112 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1% | 84.6%#1 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.8% | 50.0%#31 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wofford schedule · Ole Miss schedule · all Week 12 projections
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