Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ole Miss 29.1, Missouri 27.3 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Ole Miss wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 56.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Missouri (No. 13) is 5-1, scoring 35.8 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+18.1 per game). Ole Miss (No. 9) is 4-1, scoring 38.8 and allowing 28 points per game (+10.8 per game).
Missouri's strong offense (27th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.1 points against an average defense) meets Ole Miss's strong defense (34th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri puts up. Ole Miss's elite offense (7th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.3 points against an average defense) meets Missouri's elite defense (12th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ole Miss puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri by 21 and Ole Miss by 24 about 80% of the time.
Ole Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Missouri would be favoured by 0.3. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Missouri 3, Ole Miss 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.2 points and the total by 22.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Missouri / Ole Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ole Miss -6 → Ole Miss -4.5 | 58.5 → 58 | +169.5 / -205 |
| DraftKings | Ole Miss -6 → Ole Miss -4 | 57.5 | +154 / -185 |
| Bovada | Ole Miss -6 → Ole Miss -5 | 59.5 → 58.5 | +185 / -225 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ole Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ole Miss -2 | 56.4 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Ole Miss -4.5 | 58.0 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Ole Miss -4 | 58.1 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ole Miss win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Ole Miss -1.8 · market Ole Miss -4.5 · difference -2.7 pts (Ole Miss view)
- Total
- model 56.4 · market 58 · difference -1.6
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Missouri than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Missouri 27.3, Ole Miss 29.1 | Ole Miss 55%right winner | 26.2 | 22.4 |
| New formula | Missouri 27.1, Ole Miss 29.5 | Ole Miss 56%right winner | 25.6 | 22.6 |
Final: Missouri 3, Ole Miss 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Missouri vs Ole Miss: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Missouri | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.8#33 | 38.8#21 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.7#29 | 28.0#109 |
| Yards per play | 6.51#45 | 6.64#35 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.98#28 | 5.94#95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 184.2#57 | 146.8#99 |
| Net passing yards per game | 254.0#43 | 294.0#15 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 109.5#16 | 192.8#115 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.8#84 | 216.0#86 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#15 | 1.20#106 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#39 | 0.80#79 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#12 | 1.60#97 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.83#13 | 1.00#18 |
| Stat | Missouri | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#52 | +0.25#10 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#8 | +0.17#119 |
| Success rate | 42.4%#79 | 52.2%#6 |
| Success rate allowed | 32.8%#5 | 46.1%#122 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.1%#39 | 12.0%#92 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8%#41 | 13.8%#110 |
| Havoc rate | 19.8%#2 | 12.4%#100 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7%#106 | 8.6%#2 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.00#83 | 5.24#8 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38#35 | 4.21#101 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#8 | own 28#100 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#16 | own 30#98 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.3#50 | 66.4#60 |
| Stat | Missouri | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#118 | +0.20#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.32#14 | +0.28#24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15#4 | +0.14#120 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11#21 | +0.21#113 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.0%#116 | 52.9%#10 |
| Passing success rate | 47.1%#34 | 51.8%#16 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#93 | 15.4%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.6%#70 | 39.2%#15 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.4%#11 | 29.9%#79 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.9%#56 | 44.8%#49 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#30 | 48.6%#128 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#107 | 90.0%#1 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.9%#11 | 55.0%#52 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri schedule · Ole Miss schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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