Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas 29.1, Ole Miss 25.1 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Texas wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Ole Miss (No. 7) is 5-1, scoring 37.5 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+13.7 per game). Texas (No. 19) is 4-2, scoring 30.2 and allowing 17.8 points per game (+12.4 per game).
Ole Miss's elite offense (6th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 38.8 points against an average defense) meets Texas's elite defense (6th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ole Miss puts up. Texas's strong offense (15th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.6 points against an average defense) meets Ole Miss's strong defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ole Miss by 19 and Texas by 27 about 80% of the time.
Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas by about 1.9. The game is on ABC.
Result: Ole Miss 27, Texas 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3 points and the total by 6.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ole Miss / Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -3.5 | 54.5 | +130 / -160 |
| Opening line | Texas -8.5 | 54.5 | +250 / -310 |
| DraftKings | Texas -3 | 55.5 | +136 / -162 |
| FanDuel | Texas -3.5 | 54.5 | +130 / -156 |
| BetRivers | Texas -3 | 54.5 | +123 / -155 |
| BetMGM | Texas -3.5 | 54.5 | +130 / -160 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas -4 | 54.1 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Texas -3.5 | 54.5 | 61% |
| Blended projection | Texas -3.5 | 54.9 | 60% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Texas -4 · market Texas -3.5 · difference +0.5 pts (Texas view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 54.5 · difference -0.4
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Texas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ole Miss 25.1, Texas 29.1 | Texas 60%right winner | 3.0 | 6.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Ole Miss 27, Texas 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ole Miss vs Texas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Ole Miss | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.9#10 | 30.5#41 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1#37 | 20.3#28 |
| Yards per play | 6.86#16 | 6.10#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.45#41 | 5.17#23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 182.8#50 | 141.3#106 |
| Net passing yards per game | 317.9#3 | 247.4#49 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.9#77 | 124.9#16 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.7#34 | 225.9#86 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.87#41 | 0.69#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.73#116 | 1.54#15 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13#57 | 3.00#5 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.20#18 | 1.77#69 |
| Stat | Ole Miss | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#23 | +0.04#56 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#86 | -0.07#26 |
| Success rate | 47.8%#16 | 41.0%#94 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#48 | 38.7%#31 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#21 | 14.0%#24 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#46 | 11.1%#39 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#82 | 13.9%#31 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#26 | 13.1%#98 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.62#14 | 3.91#77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38#17 | 3.75#58 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#103 | own 33#14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#28 | own 27#15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.0#9 | 63.7#101 |
| Stat | Ole Miss | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#65 | +0.01#81 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#16 | +0.07#55 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#126 | -0.09#20 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#42 | -0.06#37 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1%#50 | 42.9%#71 |
| Passing success rate | 50.5%#6 | 39.2%#94 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2%#102 | 21.4%#117 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.4%#8 | 32.6%#41 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4%#81 | 27.2%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.1%#49 | 39.8%#83 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#50 | 36.0%#29 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.3%#45 | 62.8%#54 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.0%#33 | 63.9%#95 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ole Miss schedule · Texas schedule · all Week 8 projections
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