Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ole Miss 35, Auburn 21 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Ole Miss wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.4 points and 56.5 combined points.
Auburn is 4-3 against the 3rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.4 and allowing 24.1 points per game (+1.3 per game). Ole Miss (No. 12) is 5-2 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.7 per game).
Ole Miss's strong defense (23rd) should limit Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ole Miss's elite offense (6th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 38.8 points against an average defense) against Auburn's strong defense (32nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Auburn by 8 and Ole Miss by 37 about 80% of the time.
Ole Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ole Miss by about 12.3. The game is on SEC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Auburn / Ole Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ole Miss -13 | 57.5 | +391 / -542.5 |
| DraftKings | Ole Miss -13.5 | 57.5 | +400 / -535 |
| FanDuel | Ole Miss -13.5 | 57.5 | +390 / -520 |
| theScore Bet | Ole Miss -12.5 | 57.5 | +380 / -550 |
| BetRivers | Ole Miss -13 | 57 | +390 / -560 |
| BetMGM | Ole Miss -13 | 57.5 | +400 / -525 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Ole Miss -12.5 | 56.5 | +400 / -550 |
| Pinnacle | Ole Miss -13 | 57.5 | +392 / -529 |
| Bovada | Ole Miss -13 | 57 | +390 / -550 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ole Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ole Miss -14.5 | 56.5 | 83% |
| Market consensus | Ole Miss -13 | 57.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Ole Miss -13.5 | 57.7 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ole Miss win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Ole Miss -14.4 · market Ole Miss -13 · difference +1.4 pts (Ole Miss view)
- Total
- model 56.5 · market 57.5 · difference -1.0
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Ole Miss 82%.
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Ole Miss than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Auburn vs Ole Miss: stat comparison
| Stat | Auburn | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.4#93 | 36.0#24 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1#69 | 25.3#79 |
| Yards per play | 5.48#112 | 6.28#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.60#70 | 5.90#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.4#53 | 158.3#86 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.0#103 | 277.4#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.3#77 | 179.0#100 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.4#118 | 230.7#103 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#77 | 1.29#120 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#32 | 1.14#34 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#49 | 1.71#93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.29#136 | 0.86#8 |
| Stat | Auburn | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#93 | +0.18#26 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#90 | +0.09#94 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#100 | 48.0%#24 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6%#88 | 42.5%#84 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#47 | 12.2%#79 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#28 | 13.7%#108 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#94 | 13.0%#95 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8%#123 | 9.9%#10 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.98#82 | 5.02#9 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#55 | 4.00#88 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#112 | own 28#113 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#51 | own 29#72 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#36 | 69.4#31 |
| Stat | Auburn | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#63 | +0.17#21 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#107 | +0.19#36 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#87 | +0.12#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#86 | +0.05#74 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3%#87 | 48.9%#21 |
| Passing success rate | 39.1%#97 | 47.5%#30 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.5%#38 | 15.4%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.3%#55 | 38.0%#16 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9%#102 | 28.6%#56 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.3%#53 | 46.1%#31 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2%#46 | 43.1%#112 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#52 | 84.6%#1 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#101 | 50.0%#31 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Auburn schedule · Ole Miss schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.