Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ole Miss 26, Oklahoma 23 at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Ole Miss wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 49.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Ole Miss (No. 12) is 5-2 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.7 per game). Oklahoma is 4-3 against the 9th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.6 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+3.9 per game).
Ole Miss's elite offense (6th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 38.2 points against an average defense) meets Oklahoma's elite defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ole Miss puts up. Expect Oklahoma to find it hard going: Ole Miss's strong defense (23rd) outranks Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ole Miss by 25 and Oklahoma by 20 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ole Miss is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ole Miss / Oklahoma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma -4 | 53.5 | +164 / -198 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma -4 | 53.5 | +164 / -198 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ole Miss -3 | 49.1 | 43% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma -4 | 53.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma -3 | 53.8 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma win probability
- model 43% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference -21 pts
- Margin
- model Ole Miss -2.9 · market Oklahoma -4 · difference -6.9 pts (Oklahoma view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 53.5 · difference -4.4
Model margin is 6.9 pts more toward Ole Miss than the market.
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Ole Miss vs Oklahoma: stat comparison
| Stat | Ole Miss | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0#24 | 21.6#110 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3#79 | 17.7#24 |
| Yards per play | 6.28#51 | 5.64#100 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.90#87 | 5.14#35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.3#86 | 123.1#126 |
| Net passing yards per game | 277.4#19 | 234.9#57 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.0#100 | 137.3#47 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.7#103 | 155.1#8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#120 | 1.71#135 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#34 | 0.57#109 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#93 | 3.29#6 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#8 | 2.43#106 |
| Stat | Ole Miss | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#26 | -0.05#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#94 | -0.12#5 |
| Success rate | 48.0%#24 | 36.5%#132 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#84 | 34.0%#4 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#79 | 9.9%#129 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#108 | 9.9%#19 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#95 | 15.1%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.9%#10 | 17.4%#135 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.02#9 | 3.31#124 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.00#88 | 2.75#4 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#113 | own 27#120 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#72 | own 32#127 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.4#31 | 63.4#92 |
| Stat | Ole Miss | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#21 | -0.10#132 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#36 | -0.01#110 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#114 | -0.06#27 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#74 | -0.19#5 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.9%#21 | 34.7%#134 |
| Passing success rate | 47.5%#30 | 38.0%#108 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.4%#37 | 19.6%#107 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.0%#16 | 29.9%#91 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#56 | 25.6%#22 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.1%#31 | 40.4%#74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.1%#112 | 24.4%#2 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 84.6%#1 | 40.0%#136 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#31 | 46.7%#19 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ole Miss schedule · Oklahoma schedule · all Week 11 projections
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