Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ole Miss 29.6, Vanderbilt 29 at FirstBank Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Ole Miss wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 58.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Ole Miss (No. 9) is 3-1, scoring 35.5 and allowing 30.8 points per game (+4.7 per game). Vanderbilt is 3-2, scoring 25.4 and allowing 25 points per game (+0.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Ole Miss's elite offense (13th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.8 points against an average defense) against Vanderbilt's strong defense (34th). Vanderbilt's strong offense (40th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense) meets Ole Miss's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vanderbilt puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ole Miss by 23 and Vanderbilt by 22 about 80% of the time.
Vanderbilt gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ole Miss is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 34.4 points and the total by 10.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ole Miss / Vanderbilt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ole Miss -10 → Ole Miss -9.25 | 58.75 → 54.25 | -382.5 / +292.5 |
| Bovada | Ole Miss -10 → Ole Miss -9 | 59 → 54 | -410 / +305 |
| DraftKings | Ole Miss -10 → Ole Miss -9.5 | 58.5 → 54.5 | -355 / +280 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Vanderbilt win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ole Miss -0.5 | 58.6 | 48% |
| Market consensus | Ole Miss -9 | 54.3 | 24% |
| Blended projection | Ole Miss -8 | 55.0 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Vanderbilt win probability
- model 48% · market (no-vig) 24% · difference +24 pts
- Margin
- model Ole Miss -0.6 · market Ole Miss -9.25 · difference +8.7 pts (Vanderbilt view)
- Total
- model 58.6 · market 54.25 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 8.7 pts more toward Vanderbilt than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ole Miss 29.6, Vanderbilt 29.0 | Ole Miss 52%right winner | 34.4 | 10.4 |
| New formula | Ole Miss 30.0, Vanderbilt 28.3 | Ole Miss 54%right winner | 33.3 | 10.7 |
Final: Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ole Miss | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.5#41 | 25.4#90 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.8#118 | 25.0#80 |
| Yards per play | 6.70#38 | 5.66#103 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#109 | 5.49#66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.8#114 | 131.0#116 |
| Net passing yards per game | 313.8#10 | 218.6#77 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 209.5#130 | 148.8#65 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.8#79 | 194.6#56 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#108 | 0.80#63 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#114 | 1.00#51 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#98 | 2.80#23 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#19 | 1.60#63 |
| Stat | Ole Miss | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#14 | +0.14#45 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19#126 | +0.05#78 |
| Success rate | 50.6%#11 | 41.8%#87 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.8%#130 | 40.7%#71 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#100 | 11.2%#104 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#112 | 11.7%#68 |
| Havoc rate | 11.2%#123 | 13.4%#79 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2%#5 | 11.2%#29 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.92#14 | 3.79#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.21#97 | 4.29#103 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#112 | own 30#74 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#119 | own 26#14 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.8#58 | 61.8#106 |
| Stat | Ole Miss | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.19#15 | +0.13#43 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25#32 | +0.15#51 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#120 | +0.06#84 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#118 | +0.03#67 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.0%#13 | 41.3%#98 |
| Passing success rate | 50.3%#21 | 42.2%#79 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.7%#40 | 15.1%#47 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.8%#23 | 27.8%#100 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#82 | 28.0%#58 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#44 | 34.3%#116 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.4%#123 | 37.9%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 87.5%#1 | 73.3%#21 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3%#63 | 57.1%#69 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ole Miss schedule · Vanderbilt schedule · all Week 6 projections
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