Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ole Miss 41, Mississippi State 26 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Ole Miss wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15 points and 66.2 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Mississippi State is 4-3 against the 5th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2.3 per game). Ole Miss (No. 12) is 5-2 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.7 per game).
Mississippi State's strong offense (31st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense) meets Ole Miss's strong defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Mississippi State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Ole Miss's elite offense (6th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 38.2 points against an average defense) against Mississippi State's middle-of-the-pack defense (71st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mississippi State by 8 and Ole Miss by 38 about 80% of the time.
Ole Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ole Miss by about 12.9. The game is on ABC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi State / Ole Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ole Miss -14.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +440 / -600 |
| DraftKings | Ole Miss -14.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +440 / -600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ole Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ole Miss -15 | 66.2 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Ole Miss -14.5 | 57.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Ole Miss -14.5 | 58.2 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ole Miss win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Ole Miss -15 · market Ole Miss -14.5 · difference +0.5 pts (Ole Miss view)
- Total
- model 66.2 · market 57.5 · difference +8.7
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward Ole Miss than the market.
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Mississippi State vs Ole Miss: stat comparison
| Stat | Mississippi State | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.0#61 | 36.0#24 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7#102 | 25.3#79 |
| Yards per play | 6.56#31 | 6.28#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47#61 | 5.90#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.9#49 | 158.3#86 |
| Net passing yards per game | 266.6#28 | 277.4#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 135.9#42 | 179.0#100 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.0#112 | 230.7#103 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#121 | 1.29#120 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#123 | 1.14#34 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#50 | 1.71#93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.86#122 | 0.86#8 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#42 | +0.18#26 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#88 | +0.09#94 |
| Success rate | 46.2%#38 | 48.0%#24 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#106 | 42.5%#84 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.0%#13 | 12.2%#79 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#29 | 13.7%#108 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#81 | 13.0%#95 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#82 | 9.9%#10 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.20#54 | 5.02#9 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09#99 | 4.00#88 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#90 | own 28#113 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#73 | own 29#72 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.1#34 | 69.4#31 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#37 | +0.17#21 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#47 | +0.19#36 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#12 | +0.12#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#119 | +0.05#74 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#44 | 48.9%#21 |
| Passing success rate | 45.8%#38 | 47.5%#30 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.7%#108 | 15.4%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5%#49 | 38.0%#16 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#95 | 28.6%#56 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.8%#48 | 46.1%#31 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%#94 | 43.1%#112 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#53 | 84.6%#1 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.3%#65 | 50.0%#31 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi State schedule · Ole Miss schedule · all Week 13 projections
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