2026 schedule

Mississippi State Bulldogs

4-3SOS #5

2026 season so far

Mississippi State is 4-3 against the 5th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2.3 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Mississippi State ranks 47th of 139 FBS teams overall — 31st on offense and 71st on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Texas in Week 9. We project Mississippi State 19, Texas 36 — Mississippi State wins 13% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
UL Monroe Warhawks
0-1 · SOS #100
Win 62-13
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Mississippi State by 13.5
Total 56.9
DraftKings
MSST -28.5
Total 54.5
Final Mississippi State by 49. Mississippi State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mississippi State -28.5 · O/U 54.75 (open 55.5) · ML +2050 / -52000 · Mississippi State 95% no-vig · model vs market -15.0 pts, -14 pct pts (Mississippi State view)
ESPNU Davis Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
at
Minnesota Golden Gophers
1-1 · SOS #83
Win 38-13
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Minnesota by 1
Total 56.2
DraftKings
MSST -1.5
Total 53.5
Final Mississippi State by 25. Mississippi State beat the spread. 51 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mississippi State -0.25 (open Minnesota -0.75) · O/U 53.5 (open 55.5) · ML -107.5 / -112.5 · Minnesota 51% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +2 pct pts (Minnesota view)
CBS Huntington Bank Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed
at
South Carolina Gamecocks
2-1 · SOS #21
Win 41-34
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Mississippi State by 5.1
Total 56.1
DraftKings
SC -3
Total 59.5
Final Mississippi State by 7. Mississippi State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Carolina -3 (open South Carolina -5.5) · O/U 59.25 (open 56.5) · ML +138 / -163.5 · South Carolina 60% no-vig · model vs market -8.1 pts, -23 pct pts (South Carolina view)
SEC Network Williams-Brice Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit
High-scoring pick'em dogStudy · Moderate Underdog wins: Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: Record 87 hits, 52 misses (63% hit rate) over 139 graded gamesSpread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: hit (n=139) · Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
vs
#19 Missouri Tigers
3-1 · SOS #37
Win 31-24
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Mississippi State by 7.9
Total 59.7
DraftKings
MSST -3.5
Total 58.5
Final Mississippi State by 7. Mississippi State beat the spread. 55 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mississippi State -3.5 (open Mississippi State -3.75) · O/U 58.5 (open 57.25) · ML +167.5 / -202.5 · Mississippi State 64% no-vig · model vs market +4.4 pts, +6 pct pts (Mississippi State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F, Wind 3 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGTR)
SEC Network Davis Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
C. Lee WR · Low rec yds 60 (avg 85) · 75% · 156 ✗K. Taylor QB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 59) · 74% · 7 ✓D. Olugbode WR · Low rec yds 65 (avg 86) · 73% · 54 ✓
vs
#7 Alabama Crimson Tide
5-0 · SOS #3
Loss 23-56
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 9.9
Total 64.7
DraftKings
ALA -5.5
Total 62.5
Final Alabama by 33. Alabama beat the spread. 79 points — over the 62.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alabama -5.5 (open Alabama -4.5) · O/U 62 (open 59) · ML -217.5 / +180 · Mississippi State 34% no-vig · model vs market -4.4 pts, -9 pct pts (Mississippi State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 86°F, Wind 5 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGTR)
ABC Davis Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: hit
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
K. Russell QB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 42) · 75% · 16 ✓R. Coleman-Williams WR · Low rec yds 61 (avg 83) · 72% · 43 ✓K. Taylor QB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 46) · 69% · -26 ✓
at
#22 LSU Tigers
5-2 · SOS #23
Loss 0-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
LSU by 10.9
Total 62.1
DraftKings
LSU -17.5
Total 56.5
Final LSU by 31. LSU beat the spread. 31 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: LSU -17.75 (open LSU -11.5) · O/U 56 (open 59.25) · ML +472.5 / -690 · LSU 82% no-vig · model vs market -6.9 pts, -6 pct pts (LSU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 13 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBTR)
ESPN/Disney+ Tiger Stadium (LA)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · F. Bothwell RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 81) · 75% · did not playElite 156-53 (typical 60%) · K. Taylor QB · Low rush yds 23 (avg 32) · 75% · did not playS. Leavitt QB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 43) · 69% · 11 ✓
vs
Oklahoma Sooners
4-3 · SOS #6
Loss 15-23
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Oklahoma by 4.5
Total 50.9
DraftKings
OU -1.5
Total 49.5
Final Oklahoma by 8. Oklahoma beat the spread. 38 points — under the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma -1.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML -124 / -102 · Mississippi State 47% no-vig · model vs market -3.0 pts, -9 pct pts (Mississippi State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 9 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGTR)
SEC Network Davis Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Bounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded gamesFavorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: hit (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesFavorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: missed (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded gamesAway team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank
at
#11 Texas Longhorns
5-2 · SOS #1
Sat, Oct 31, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 19-36 · 13%
Our number
Texas by 17
Total 55
DraftKings
TEX -21
Total 50.5
We're 4 points higher on Mississippi State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas -20.75 · O/U 50.5 · ML +852 / -1600 · Texas 90% no-vig · model vs market -3.7 pts, -3 pct pts (Texas view)
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms, 79°F, Wind calm, 21% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · F. Bothwell RB · Low rush yds 66 (avg 86) · 75%Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · K. Taylor QB · Low rush yds 20 (avg 25) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · K. Wilson RB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 31) · 75%
vs
Vanderbilt Commodores
3-5 · SOS #18
Sat, Nov 7, 9:15 PM
Week 10
Proj 32-26 · 65%
Our number
Mississippi State by 6
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SEC Network Davis Wade Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
vs
Auburn Tigers
4-3 · SOS #4
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 28-27 · 52%
Our number
Mississippi State by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Davis Wade Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
vs
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
7-1 · SOS #96
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 38-21 · 87%
Our number
Mississippi State by 17
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SECN+ Davis Wade Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
at
#12 Ole Miss Rebels
5-2 · SOS #7
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 26-41 · 16%
Our number
Ole Miss by 15
Total 67
DraftKings
MISS -14.5
Total 57.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ole Miss -14.5 · O/U 57.5 (open 56.5) · ML +440 / -600 · Ole Miss 82% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Ole Miss view)
ABC Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
T. Chambliss QB · High pass yds 297 (avg 275) · 53%

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Mississippi State Bulldogs stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+4.5

47th in FBS

Adj. offense

31.4

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

26.9

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	30.0	61 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	27.7	102 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.56	31 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.47	61 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	186.9	49 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	266.6	28 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	135.9	42 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	241.0	112 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.29	121 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.43	123 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.29	50 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.86	122 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.14	42 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.08	88 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	46.2%	38 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.3%	106 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	16.0%	13 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.3%	29 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	13.4%	81 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.8%	82 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.20	54 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.09	99 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 29	90 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 29	73 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	69.1	34 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.13	37 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.15	47 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.09	12 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.21	119 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	46.6%	44 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	45.8%	38 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	19.7%	108 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	32.5%	49 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	31.3%	95 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	43.8%	48 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	41.0%	94 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	65.2%	53 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	58.3%	65 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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