Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas 36, Mississippi State 19 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Texas wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17 points and 54.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Mississippi State is 4-3 against the 5th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2.3 per game). Texas (No. 11) is 5-2 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.7 and allowing 19.1 points per game (+11.6 per game).
Texas's elite defense (6th) should limit Mississippi State's strong offense (31st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Texas's elite offense (11th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.9 points against an average defense) against Mississippi State's middle-of-the-pack defense (71st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mississippi State by 6 and Texas by 40 about 80% of the time.
Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas by about 14.9. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi State / Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -20.75 | 50.5 | +852 / -1600 |
| FanDuel | Texas -20.5 | 50.5 | +860 / -1600 |
| DraftKings | Texas -21 | 50.5 | +850 / -1450 |
| BetRivers | Texas -20.5 | 51 | +850 / -1667 |
| theScore Bet | Texas -20.5 | 50.5 | +1000 / -2000 |
| BetMGM | Texas -21 | 50.5 | +900 / -1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Texas -20.5 | 50.5 | +850 / -1600 |
| Pinnacle | Texas -21 | 51.5 | +854 / -1498 |
| Bovada | Texas -21 | 51 | +800 / -1600 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas -17 | 54.4 | 87% |
| Market consensus | Texas -21 | 50.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Texas -20.5 | 51.5 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas win probability
- model 87% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Texas -17 · market Texas -20.75 · difference -3.7 pts (Texas view)
- Total
- model 54.4 · market 50.5 · difference +3.9
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Texas 91%.
Model margin is 3.7 pts more toward Mississippi State than the market.
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Mississippi State vs Texas: stat comparison
| Stat | Mississippi State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.0#61 | 30.7#57 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.7#102 | 19.1#29 |
| Yards per play | 6.56#31 | 5.72#95 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47#61 | 4.19#1 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.9#49 | 165.4#72 |
| Net passing yards per game | 266.6#28 | 217.7#78 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 135.9#42 | 124.7#27 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.0#112 | 158.7#12 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#121 | 1.43#129 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#123 | 1.00#48 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#50 | 2.86#13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.86#122 | 2.71#118 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#42 | -0.02#120 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#88 | -0.10#12 |
| Success rate | 46.2%#38 | 42.5%#73 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#106 | 34.0%#5 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.0%#13 | 11.5%#100 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#29 | 7.3%#3 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#81 | 18.3%#5 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#82 | 16.1%#127 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.20#54 | 4.95#13 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09#99 | 3.12#13 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#90 | own 29#76 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#73 | own 29#61 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.1#34 | 67.0#60 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#37 | -0.02#116 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#47 | -0.02#113 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#12 | -0.03#37 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#119 | -0.15#10 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#44 | 44.9%#61 |
| Passing success rate | 45.8%#38 | 40.1%#86 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.7%#108 | 18.4%#90 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.5%#49 | 33.8%#40 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#95 | 21.5%#5 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.8%#48 | 39.2%#89 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0%#94 | 33.0%#19 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#53 | 64.3%#62 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.3%#65 | 47.1%#21 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi State schedule · Texas schedule · all Week 9 projections
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