Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected LSU 36.5, Mississippi State 25.6 at Tiger Stadium (LA) in Week 7. That is a solid edge: LSU wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.9 points and 62 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Mississippi State (No. 16) is 4-1, scoring 39 and allowing 28 points per game (+11 per game). LSU (No. 22) is 4-2, scoring 42 and allowing 18.5 points per game (+23.5 per game).
Mississippi State's strong offense (14th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.7 points against an average defense) meets LSU's elite defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Mississippi State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: LSU's elite offense (9th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.1 points against an average defense) against Mississippi State's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mississippi State by 12 and LSU by 33 about 80% of the time.
LSU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour LSU by about 8.8. The game is on ESPN/Disney+.
Result: Mississippi State 0, LSU 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.1 points and the total by 31.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi State / LSU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -11.5 → LSU -17.75 | 59.25 → 56 | +472.5 / -690 |
| DraftKings | LSU -12.5 → LSU -17.5 | 59.5 → 56.5 | +625 / -950 |
| Bovada | LSU -10.5 → LSU -18 | 59 → 55.5 | +320 / -430 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | LSU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | LSU -11 | 62.0 | 76% |
| Market consensus | LSU -18 | 56.0 | 82% |
| Blended projection | LSU -16.5 | 56.7 | 87% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- LSU win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model LSU -10.9 · market LSU -17.75 · difference -6.8 pts (LSU view)
- Total
- model 62.0 · market 56 · difference +6.0
Model margin is 6.8 pts more toward Mississippi State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mississippi State 25.6, LSU 36.5 | LSU 76%right winner | 20.1 | 31.0 |
| New formula | Mississippi State 25.6, LSU 37.0 | LSU 77%right winner | 19.6 | 31.6 |
Final: Mississippi State 0, LSU 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mississippi State vs LSU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Mississippi State | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.0#20 | 42.0#9 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.0#110 | 18.5#32 |
| Yards per play | 7.06#15 | 6.80#27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.28#49 | 4.60#12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.2#50 | 218.5#28 |
| Net passing yards per game | 311.0#8 | 331.3#6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.4#39 | 100.2#11 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.0#105 | 167.3#24 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#120 | 1.67#133 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#124 | 1.33#21 |
| Sacks per game | 2.60#29 | 3.50#5 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.60#111 | 1.67#64 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#17 | +0.13#53 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#70 | -0.23#1 |
| Success rate | 49.0%#21 | 48.4%#25 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#80 | 31.1%#2 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.0%#4 | 15.0%#27 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#50 | 9.9%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#49 | 20.1%#1 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0%#93 | 13.7%#87 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.37#2 | 4.72#27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.20#99 | 4.15#94 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#84 | own 33#19 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#74 | own 28#46 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.0#19 | 80.8#1 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#29 | +0.09#60 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.29#20 | +0.16#47 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10#16 | -0.14#6 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#101 | -0.29#2 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.6%#24 | 46.3%#54 |
| Passing success rate | 48.5%#29 | 50.6%#21 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4%#122 | 16.2%#58 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.6%#21 | 42.9%#5 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.7%#55 | 24.3%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.4%#26 | 56.7%#6 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.1%#48 | 32.5%#26 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#53 | 67.6%#49 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7%#95 | 60.0%#80 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi State schedule · LSU schedule · all Week 7 projections
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