Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Mississippi State 33.8, Missouri 25.9 at Davis Wade Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Mississippi State wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.9 points and 59.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Missouri (No. 19) is 3-0, scoring 39.7 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+22.4 per game). Mississippi State (No. 24) is 3-0, scoring 47 and allowing 20 points per game (+27 per game).
Missouri's strong offense (33rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.7 points against an average defense) meets Mississippi State's strong defense (41st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri puts up. Mississippi State's elite offense (8th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.6 points against an average defense) meets Missouri's strong defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Mississippi State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Missouri by 15 and Mississippi State by 30 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mississippi State by about 5.8. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Missouri 24, Mississippi State 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.9 points and the total by 4.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Missouri / Mississippi State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Mississippi State -3.75 → Mississippi State -3.5 | 57.25 → 58.5 | +167.5 / -202.5 |
| DraftKings | Mississippi State -1.5 → Mississippi State -3.5 | 56.5 → 58.5 | +145 / -175 |
| Bovada | Mississippi State -6 → Mississippi State -3.5 | 58 → 58.5 | +190 / -230 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mississippi State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Mississippi State -8 | 59.7 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Mississippi State -3.5 | 58.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Mississippi State -4 | 58.7 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mississippi State win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Mississippi State -7.9 · market Mississippi State -3.5 · difference +4.4 pts (Mississippi State view)
- Total
- model 59.7 · market 58.5 · difference +1.2
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Mississippi State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Missouri 25.9, Mississippi State 33.8 | Mississippi State 70%right winner | 0.9 | 4.7 |
| New formula | Missouri 25.7, Mississippi State 33.9 | Mississippi State 70%right winner | 1.1 | 4.6 |
Final: Missouri 24, Mississippi State 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Missouri vs Mississippi State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Missouri | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.7#32 | 47.0#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.3#41 | 20.0#57 |
| Yards per play | 6.53#59 | 7.92#10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.68#32 | 4.41#19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 171.7#76 | 249.7#17 |
| Net passing yards per game | 246.0#53 | 297.0#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 126.7#54 | 111.7#32 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.0#38 | 197.0#64 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#17 | 0.67#48 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#28 | 0.67#82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67#22 | 2.33#35 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33#2 | 1.33#56 |
| Stat | Missouri | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#46 | +0.37#1 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12#14 | -0.08#21 |
| Success rate | 41.6%#93 | 55.2%#2 |
| Success rate allowed | 32.1%#7 | 36.9%#30 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#62 | 19.6%#2 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.9%#6 | 8.3%#10 |
| Havoc rate | 20.2%#4 | 13.1%#89 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#42 | 11.7%#41 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.07#86 | 5.45#4 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38#35 | 3.53#46 |
| Average starting field position | own 40#4 | own 30#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#9 | own 26#25 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0#86 | 69.0#43 |
| Stat | Missouri | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#107 | +0.28#4 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.35#16 | +0.45#6 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#42 | -0.18#9 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.19#12 | -0.03#54 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.1%#128 | 58.0%#5 |
| Passing success rate | 50.7%#31 | 52.4%#24 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6%#69 | 17.9%#84 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2%#63 | 46.5%#4 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.6%#23 | 16.3%#1 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.5%#84 | 50.0%#24 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.9%#23 | 27.7%#17 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.2%#116 | 71.4%#33 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.3%#65 | 33.3%#8 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Missouri schedule · Mississippi State schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.