Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Minnesota 28.6, Mississippi State 27.6 at Huntington Bank Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Minnesota wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 56.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Mississippi State is 1-0, scoring 62 and allowing 13 points per game (+49 per game). Minnesota is 1-0, scoring 59 and allowing 7 points per game (+52 per game).
Mississippi State's strong offense (21st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets Minnesota's strong defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Mississippi State puts up. Minnesota's strong offense (34th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Mississippi State's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th); that mismatch is where most of Minnesota's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mississippi State by 22 and Minnesota by 24 about 80% of the time.
Minnesota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Mississippi State would be favoured by 1.1. The game is on CBS.
Result: Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13. Mississippi State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 26 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi State / Minnesota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Minnesota -0.75 → Mississippi State -0.25 | 55.5 → 53.5 | -107.5 / -112.5 |
| DraftKings | Minnesota -2.5 → Mississippi State -1.5 | 53.5 | -110 / -110 |
| Bovada | Mississippi State -1 → Minnesota -1 | 55.5 → 53.5 | -105 / -115 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Minnesota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Minnesota -1 | 56.2 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Pick'em | 53.5 | 51% |
| Blended projection | Pick'em | 54.2 | 50% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Minnesota win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 51% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Minnesota -1 · market Mississippi State -0.25 · difference +1.3 pts (Minnesota view)
- Total
- model 56.2 · market 53.5 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Minnesota than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mississippi State 27.6, Minnesota 28.6 | Minnesota 53%wrong winner | 26.0 | 5.2 |
| New formula | Mississippi State 25.7, Minnesota 34.9 | Minnesota 71%wrong winner | 34.1 | 9.6 |
Final: Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mississippi State vs Minnesota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mississippi State | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.4#42 | 23.0#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.2#106 | 22.9#50 |
| Yards per play | 5.70#82 | 5.20#119 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.25#110 | 5.91#81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.3#54 | 113.1#131 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.2#64 | 196.5#97 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.6#118 | 139.8#33 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.2#87 | 216.1#65 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#51 | 0.58#6 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#95 | 1.00#72 |
| Sacks per game | 1.54#103 | 2.83#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.31#129 | 1.67#53 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#58 | -0.00#91 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#106 | +0.00#65 |
| Success rate | 41.3%#88 | 39.8%#105 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.2%#101 | 44.8%#110 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#109 | 9.3%#130 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#99 | 13.2%#96 |
| Havoc rate | 10.4%#120 | 14.9%#12 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#110 | 11.7%#58 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.38#28 | 3.97#71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95#78 | 4.05#92 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#63 | own 32#16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#44 | own 28#22 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.6#15 | 59.6#130 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#52 | -0.13#134 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#74 | +0.09#45 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#115 | +0.02#80 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#87 | -0.01#59 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.1%#62 | 38.2%#116 |
| Passing success rate | 38.2%#103 | 40.9%#69 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#74 | 19.4%#93 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3%#89 | 28.3%#88 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.2%#80 | 34.9%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.5%#42 | 43.1%#50 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.7%#97 | 42.8%#98 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.3%#34 | 54.8%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1%#53 | 57.5%#51 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi State schedule · Minnesota schedule · all Week 2 projections
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