Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama 37.3, Mississippi State 27.4 at Davis Wade Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Alabama wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 64.7 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Alabama (No. 7) is 4-0, scoring 48 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+27.7 per game). Mississippi State (No. 16) is 4-0, scoring 43 and allowing 21 points per game (+22 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Alabama's elite offense (4th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.9 points against an average defense) against Mississippi State's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th). Mississippi State's elite offense (10th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.9 points against an average defense) meets Alabama's elite defense (11th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Mississippi State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama by 32 and Mississippi State by 13 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.1 points and the total by 14.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama / Mississippi State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama -4.5 → Alabama -5.5 | 59 → 62 | -217.5 / +180 |
| DraftKings | Alabama -3 → Alabama -5.5 | 58.5 → 62.5 | -205 / +170 |
| Bovada | Alabama -6 → Alabama -5.5 | 59.5 → 61.5 | -230 / +190 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mississippi State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama -10 | 64.7 | 26% |
| Market consensus | Alabama -5.5 | 62.0 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Alabama -6.5 | 62.0 | 34% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mississippi State win probability
- model 26% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama -9.9 · market Alabama -5.5 · difference -4.4 pts (Mississippi State view)
- Total
- model 64.7 · market 62 · difference +2.7
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Alabama than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama 37.3, Mississippi State 27.4 | Alabama 74%right winner | 23.1 | 14.3 |
| New formula | Alabama 38.0, Mississippi State 28.5 | Alabama 73%right winner | 23.5 | 12.5 |
Final: Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama vs Mississippi State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Alabama | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 48.0#4 | 43.0#15 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.3#47 | 21.0#53 |
| Yards per play | 6.94#27 | 7.58#10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.69#81 | 4.71#28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.0#41 | 225.8#23 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.8#40 | 314.3#11 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 108.3#22 | 115.5#30 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 230.5#94 | 220.3#87 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#78 | 0.75#55 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#8 | 0.50#108 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75#24 | 2.25#48 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#86 | 2.00#88 |
| Stat | Alabama | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27#11 | +0.31#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#40 | -0.04#38 |
| Success rate | 49.6%#21 | 52.3%#7 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.1%#12 | 38.7%#52 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.7%#5 | 19.1%#1 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#96 | 9.5%#20 |
| Havoc rate | 16.8%#19 | 16.5%#24 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5%#113 | 12.4%#60 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.33#5 | 5.33#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.47#115 | 3.35#35 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#24 | own 28#102 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#12 | own 28#62 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3#63 | 71.3#20 |
| Stat | Alabama | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.19#18 | +0.21#12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.35#15 | +0.39#10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00#61 | -0.17#6 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#36 | +0.05#78 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.8%#21 | 53.8%#9 |
| Passing success rate | 48.2%#36 | 50.8%#21 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.5%#114 | 19.6%#105 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.4%#50 | 43.1%#4 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.0%#43 | 23.3%#17 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.8%#46 | 48.9%#31 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 25.5%#6 | 31.7%#29 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 80.0%#9 | 66.7%#61 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.0%#124 | 40.0%#11 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama schedule · Mississippi State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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