Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oklahoma 27.7, Mississippi State 23.2 at Davis Wade Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Oklahoma wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 50.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Oklahoma is 3-3, scoring 21.3 and allowing 18.2 points per game (+3.1 per game). Mississippi State is 4-2, scoring 32.5 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+4 per game).
Oklahoma's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) meets Mississippi State's middle-of-the-pack defense (71st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oklahoma puts up. Oklahoma's elite defense (5th) should limit Mississippi State's strong offense (31st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma by 27 and Mississippi State by 18 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oklahoma is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 15. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 12.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oklahoma / Mississippi State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma -1.5 | 49.5 | -124 / -102 |
| Opening line | Oklahoma -1.5 | 50.5 | -128 / +106 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma -1.5 | 49.5 | -122 / +102 |
| FanDuel | Oklahoma -1.5 | 49.5 | -118 / -102 |
| BetRivers | Oklahoma -1.5 | 49.5 | -127 / +102 |
| BetMGM | Oklahoma -2 | 49.5 | -125 / +105 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mississippi State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oklahoma -4.5 | 50.8 | 38% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma -1.5 | 49.5 | 47% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma -2 | 50.4 | 45% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mississippi State win probability
- model 38% · market (no-vig) 47% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Oklahoma -4.5 · market Oklahoma -1.5 · difference -3.0 pts (Mississippi State view)
- Total
- model 50.8 · market 49.5 · difference +1.3
Model margin is 3.0 pts more toward Oklahoma than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oklahoma 27.7, Mississippi State 23.2 | Oklahoma 62%right winner | 3.5 | 12.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 15. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Oklahoma | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.2#79 | 30.4#42 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.5#7 | 30.2#106 |
| Yards per play | 5.56#95 | 5.70#82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.73#6 | 6.25#110 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.5#116 | 180.3#54 |
| Net passing yards per game | 236.0#55 | 228.2#64 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 101.6#5 | 196.6#118 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.0#38 | 226.2#87 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#62 | 0.92#51 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#90 | 0.85#95 |
| Sacks per game | 3.46#1 | 1.54#103 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.31#104 | 3.31#129 |
| Stat | Oklahoma | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06#117 | +0.04#58 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.18#4 | +0.07#106 |
| Success rate | 39.6%#106 | 41.3%#88 |
| Success rate allowed | 32.2%#3 | 44.2%#101 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#94 | 11.1%#109 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#31 | 13.2%#99 |
| Havoc rate | 16.6%#5 | 10.4%#120 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#103 | 13.8%#110 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.91#75 | 4.38#28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.90#5 | 3.95#78 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#30 | own 30#63 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#11 | own 28#44 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.2#68 | 71.6#15 |
| Stat | Oklahoma | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#128 | +0.06#52 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#93 | +0.02#74 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.18#4 | +0.07#115 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.18#13 | +0.06#87 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7%#119 | 44.1%#62 |
| Passing success rate | 41.2%#65 | 38.2%#103 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#120 | 18.5%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4%#103 | 28.3%#89 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9%#20 | 30.2%#80 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.2%#80 | 43.5%#42 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.3%#2 | 42.7%#97 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.7%#15 | 67.3%#34 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.4%#7 | 58.1%#53 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma schedule · Mississippi State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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