Matchup analysis
Our model projects Mississippi State 28, Auburn 27 at Davis Wade Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Mississippi State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 55.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Auburn is 4-3 against the 3rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.4 and allowing 24.1 points per game (+1.3 per game). Mississippi State is 4-3 against the 5th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2.3 per game).
Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets Mississippi State's middle-of-the-pack defense (71st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Auburn puts up. Mississippi State's strong offense (31st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense) meets Auburn's strong defense (32nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Mississippi State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Auburn by 22 and Mississippi State by 23 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Auburn would be favoured by 1.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Auburn vs Mississippi State: stat comparison
| Stat | Auburn | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.4#93 | 30.0#61 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1#69 | 27.7#102 |
| Yards per play | 5.48#112 | 6.56#31 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.60#70 | 5.47#61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.4#53 | 186.9#49 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.0#103 | 266.6#28 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.3#77 | 135.9#42 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.4#118 | 241.0#112 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#77 | 1.29#121 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#32 | 0.43#123 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#49 | 2.29#50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.29#136 | 2.86#122 |
| Stat | Auburn | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#93 | +0.14#42 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#90 | +0.08#88 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#100 | 46.2%#38 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6%#88 | 44.3%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#47 | 16.0%#13 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#28 | 10.3%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 13.0%#94 | 13.4%#81 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8%#123 | 13.8%#82 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.98#82 | 4.20#54 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#55 | 4.09#99 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#112 | own 29#90 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#51 | own 29#73 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#36 | 69.1#34 |
| Stat | Auburn | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#63 | +0.13#37 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#107 | +0.15#47 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#87 | -0.09#12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#86 | +0.21#119 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.3%#87 | 46.6%#44 |
| Passing success rate | 39.1%#97 | 45.8%#38 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.5%#38 | 19.7%#108 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.3%#55 | 32.5%#49 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9%#102 | 31.3%#95 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.3%#53 | 43.8%#48 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2%#46 | 41.0%#94 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#52 | 65.2%#53 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#101 | 58.3%#65 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Auburn schedule · Mississippi State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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