Matchup analysis
Our model projects Mississippi State 38, Tennessee Tech 21 at Davis Wade Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Mississippi State wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.8 points and 59.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Tennessee Tech is 7-1 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.3 and allowing 21.5 points per game (+11.8 per game). Mississippi State is 4-3 against the 5th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2.3 per game).
Tennessee Tech plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Mississippi State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee Tech by 6 and Mississippi State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mississippi State by about 14.7. The game is on SECN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi State: stat comparison
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.3 | 30.0#61 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.5 | 27.7#102 |
| Yards per play | 6.42 | 6.56#31 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.09 | 5.47#61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.3 | 186.9#49 |
| Net passing yards per game | 271.4 | 266.6#28 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.0 | 135.9#42 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 150.6 | 241.0#112 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.29#121 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 | 0.43#123 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.29#50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 2.86#122 |
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.14#42 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.08#88 |
| Success rate | 45.8% | 46.2%#38 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 44.3%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 16.0%#13 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 10.3%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 13.4%#81 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 13.8%#82 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 4.20#54 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.09#99 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#90 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#73 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.9 | 69.1#34 |
| Stat | Tennessee Tech | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.13#37 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.15#47 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | -0.09#12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.21#119 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8% | 46.6%#44 |
| Passing success rate | 45.6% | 45.8%#38 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 19.7%#108 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.4% | 32.5%#49 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0% | 31.3%#95 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.7% | 43.8%#48 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2% | 41.0%#94 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 65.2%#53 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 58.3%#65 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee Tech schedule · Mississippi State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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