Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Mississippi State 35.2, UL Monroe 21.7 at Davis Wade Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Mississippi State wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 56.9 combined points.
UL Monroe has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Mississippi State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect UL Monroe to find it hard going: Mississippi State's middle-of-the-pack defense (71st) outranks UL Monroe's struggling offense (133rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.8 points against an average defense). Mississippi State's strong offense (31st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UL Monroe's struggling defense (130th); that mismatch is where most of Mississippi State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UL Monroe by 9 and Mississippi State by 36 about 80% of the time.
Mississippi State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Mississippi State by about 11.4. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: UL Monroe 13, Mississippi State 62. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 35.5 points and the total by 18.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UL Monroe / Mississippi State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Mississippi State -28.5 | 55.5 → 54.75 | +2050 / -52000 |
| Bovada | Mississippi State -28.5 | 55.5 → 55 | +2500 / -100000 |
| DraftKings | Mississippi State -28.5 | 54.5 | +1600 / -4000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Mississippi State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Mississippi State -13.5 | 56.9 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Mississippi State -28.5 | 54.8 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Mississippi State -26 | 55.3 | 96% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Mississippi State win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference -14 pts
- Margin
- model Mississippi State -13.5 · market Mississippi State -28.5 · difference -15.0 pts (Mississippi State view)
- Total
- model 56.9 · market 54.75 · difference +2.1
Model margin is 15.0 pts more toward UL Monroe than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UL Monroe 21.7, Mississippi State 35.2 | Mississippi State 81%right winner | 35.5 | 18.1 |
| New formula | UL Monroe 15.4, Mississippi State 42.1 | Mississippi State 94%right winner | 22.3 | 17.5 |
Final: UL Monroe 13, Mississippi State 62. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UL Monroe vs Mississippi State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UL Monroe | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.6#130 | 30.4#42 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.9#119 | 30.2#106 |
| Yards per play | 5.63#87 | 5.70#82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.65#55 | 6.25#110 |
| Rushing yards per game | 173.7#65 | 180.3#54 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.3#117 | 228.2#64 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.9#81 | 196.6#118 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.8#57 | 226.2#87 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#120 | 0.92#51 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#132 | 0.85#95 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08#60 | 1.54#103 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#56 | 3.31#129 |
| Stat | UL Monroe | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#97 | +0.04#58 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#85 | +0.07#106 |
| Success rate | 37.9%#118 | 41.3%#88 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1%#63 | 44.2%#101 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#41 | 11.1%#109 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#61 | 13.2%#99 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#72 | 10.4%#120 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.1%#134 | 13.8%#110 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#120 | 4.38#28 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#66 | 3.95#78 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#127 | own 30#63 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#134 | own 28#44 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5#125 | 71.6#15 |
| Stat | UL Monroe | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00#89 | +0.06#52 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#94 | +0.02#74 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#37 | +0.07#115 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#104 | +0.06#87 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.3%#129 | 44.1%#62 |
| Passing success rate | 36.2%#115 | 38.2%#103 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1%#130 | 18.5%#74 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.2%#107 | 28.3%#89 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9%#98 | 30.2%#80 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.4%#123 | 43.5%#42 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4%#108 | 42.7%#97 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.2%#88 | 67.3%#34 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.6%#31 | 58.1%#53 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UL Monroe schedule · Mississippi State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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