Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Mississippi State 30.6, South Carolina 25.5 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Mississippi State wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 56 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Mississippi State is 2-0, scoring 50 and allowing 13 points per game (+37 per game). South Carolina is 2-0, scoring 51 and allowing 4.5 points per game (+46.5 per game).
Mississippi State's elite offense (13th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36 points against an average defense) meets South Carolina's elite defense (11th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Mississippi State puts up. South Carolina's strong offense (24th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Mississippi State's strong defense (39th); that mismatch is where most of South Carolina's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Mississippi State by 28 and South Carolina by 17 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Mississippi State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 19.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi State / South Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina -5.5 → South Carolina -3 | 56.5 → 59.25 | +138 / -163.5 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina -7.5 → South Carolina -3 | 54.5 → 59.5 | +136 / -162 |
| Bovada | South Carolina -3.5 → South Carolina -3 | 58.5 → 59 | +140 / -165 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Mississippi State -5 | 56.0 | 37% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina -3 | 59.3 | 60% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina -1.5 | 59.1 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Carolina win probability
- model 37% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference -23 pts
- Margin
- model Mississippi State -5.1 · market South Carolina -3 · difference -8.1 pts (South Carolina view)
- Total
- model 56.0 · market 59.25 · difference -3.2
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward Mississippi State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mississippi State 30.6, South Carolina 25.5 | Mississippi State 63%right winner | 1.9 | 19.0 |
| New formula | Mississippi State 25.4, South Carolina 32.6 | South Carolina 68%wrong winner | 14.2 | 17.0 |
Final: Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mississippi State vs South Carolina: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Mississippi State | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 50.0#14 | 51.0#12 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.0#31 | 4.5#1 |
| Yards per play | 8.48#8 | 8.26#11 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.93#14 | 3.41#6 |
| Rushing yards per game | 301.0#10 | 335.5#3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 322.0#14 | 226.5#73 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 86.5#14 | 74.0#11 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.0#50 | 115.5#11 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#33 | 0.50#35 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#123 | 0.50#91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#56 | 2.50#34 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#11 | 1.00#36 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.32#6 | +0.10#65 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.08#29 | +0.02#69 |
| Success rate | 57.6%#4 | 42.8%#76 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.6%#35 | 39.0%#51 |
| Explosive play rate | 19.0%#6 | 13.1%#65 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.9%#9 | 11.2%#62 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#93 | 13.5%#83 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6%#17 | 13.5%#71 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.13#15 | 3.98#84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.84#13 | 4.03#85 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#126 | own 28#104 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#19 | own 22#5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.5#17 | 68.0#49 |
| Stat | Mississippi State | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.34#5 | +0.20#15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#21 | +0.01#96 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15#21 | -0.06#43 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#38 | +0.09#91 |
| Rushing success rate | 62.7%#4 | 63.3%#3 |
| Passing success rate | 59.6%#11 | 41.3%#81 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.9%#46 | 15.6%#41 |
| Passing-down success rate | 44.4%#8 | 31.2%#73 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 18.8%#12 | 30.8%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.4%#30 | 63.6%#9 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 24.1%#19 | 26.7%#26 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.0%#50 | 60.3%#88 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18.1%#5 | 60.5%#76 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi State schedule · South Carolina schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.