Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida 33.9, Ole Miss 28 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Florida wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 61.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Ole Miss (No. 4) is 3-0, scoring 38 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+14.3 per game). Florida (No. 21) is 3-0, scoring 54 and allowing 21 points per game (+33 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Ole Miss's strong offense (15th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.4 points against an average defense) against Florida's strong defense (30th). Florida's elite offense (12th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.8 points against an average defense) meets Ole Miss's strong defense (26th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ole Miss by 17 and Florida by 28 about 80% of the time.
Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida by about 3.8. The game is on ABC.
Result: Ole Miss 28, Florida 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18.1 points and the total by 18.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ole Miss / Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida -2.5 → Florida -4 | 59.25 → 58.5 | +141 / -167.5 |
| DraftKings | Florida -1.5 → Florida -4 | 57.5 → 58.5 | +142 / -170 |
| Bovada | Florida -3.5 → Florida -4 | 61 → 58.5 | +140 / -165 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida -6 | 61.8 | 65% |
| Market consensus | Florida -4 | 58.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Florida -4.5 | 58.8 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida win probability
- model 65% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Florida -5.9 · market Florida -4 · difference +1.9 pts (Florida view)
- Total
- model 61.8 · market 58.5 · difference +3.3
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward Florida than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ole Miss 28.0, Florida 33.9 | Florida 65%right winner | 18.1 | 18.2 |
| New formula | Ole Miss 29.9, Florida 34.2 | Florida 61%right winner | 19.7 | 15.8 |
Final: Ole Miss 28, Florida 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ole Miss vs Florida: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ole Miss | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.0#38 | 54.0#2 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7#78 | 21.0#64 |
| Yards per play | 6.57#56 | 8.01#7 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06#106 | 4.55#26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.3#115 | 247.3#19 |
| Net passing yards per game | 320.0#15 | 297.3#24 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.7#109 | 114.7#38 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.0#88 | 213.0#81 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#79 | 1.00#78 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#81 | 1.00#46 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#53 | 3.67#6 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#37 | 1.00#35 |
| Stat | Ole Miss | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22#19 | +0.27#9 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#112 | +0.10#103 |
| Success rate | 49.2%#22 | 47.8%#26 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1%#100 | 39.7%#62 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#95 | 16.2%#16 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#119 | 11.1%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#71 | 16.1%#39 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.3%#13 | 12.3%#56 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.26#11 | 5.26#10 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.50#43 | 4.48#111 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#102 | own 32#49 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#101 | own 29#79 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.0#42 | 68.0#48 |
| Stat | Ole Miss | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#26 | +0.17#28 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.26#34 | +0.43#9 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#94 | +0.19#127 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21#112 | +0.04#78 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.7%#38 | 44.4%#79 |
| Passing success rate | 49.6%#34 | 60.3%#6 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.9%#83 | 14.2%#34 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.6%#21 | 32.8%#60 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.1%#29 | 36.5%#121 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.6%#38 | 47.1%#43 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5%#102 | 42.3%#97 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 91.7%#2 | 75.0%#23 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.3%#7 | 58.6%#67 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ole Miss schedule · Florida schedule · all Week 4 projections
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