Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia 33, Ole Miss 28 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Georgia wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 61.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Georgia (No. 3) is 6-1 against the 52nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43 and allowing 15.9 points per game (+27.1 per game). Ole Miss (No. 12) is 5-2 against the 6th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Georgia's elite offense (3rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.4 points against an average defense) against Ole Miss's strong defense (23rd). Ole Miss's elite offense (6th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 38.2 points against an average defense) meets Georgia's elite defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ole Miss puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia by 27 and Ole Miss by 18 about 80% of the time.
Ole Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Georgia is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia / Ole Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia -4.5 | 55.5 | -218 / +180 |
| DraftKings | Georgia -4.5 | 55.5 | -218 / +180 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ole Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia -5 | 61.3 | 38% |
| Market consensus | Georgia -4.5 | 55.5 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Georgia -4.5 | 56.2 | 38% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ole Miss win probability
- model 38% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia -4.8 · market Georgia -4.5 · difference -0.3 pts (Ole Miss view)
- Total
- model 61.3 · market 55.5 · difference +5.8
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Ole Miss 41%.
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Georgia vs Ole Miss: stat comparison
| Stat | Georgia | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.0#3 | 36.0#24 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.9#16 | 25.3#79 |
| Yards per play | 7.69#3 | 6.28#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.65#10 | 5.90#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 202.1#31 | 158.3#86 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.7#39 | 277.4#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.0#19 | 179.0#100 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 177.7#24 | 230.7#103 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#29 | 1.29#120 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#33 | 1.14#34 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#10 | 1.71#93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#22 | 0.86#8 |
| Stat | Georgia | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#7 | +0.18#26 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#25 | +0.09#94 |
| Success rate | 53.4%#1 | 48.0%#24 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.4%#7 | 42.5%#84 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.3%#5 | 12.2%#79 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.7%#17 | 13.7%#108 |
| Havoc rate | 15.9%#25 | 13.0%#95 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#18 | 9.9%#10 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.22#2 | 5.02#9 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#59 | 4.00#88 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#40 | own 28#113 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#41 | own 29#72 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.6#122 | 69.4#31 |
| Stat | Georgia | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.19#13 | +0.17#21 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#15 | +0.19#36 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#23 | +0.12#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#37 | +0.05#74 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.8%#2 | 48.9%#21 |
| Passing success rate | 54.5%#4 | 47.5%#30 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#20 | 15.4%#37 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.4%#12 | 38.0%#16 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.2%#6 | 28.6%#56 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 56.9%#3 | 46.1%#31 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.0%#73 | 43.1%#112 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#2 | 84.6%#1 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.9%#128 | 50.0%#31 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia schedule · Ole Miss schedule · all Week 10 projections
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