Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ole Miss 31.8, Louisville 27.7 on a neutral field at Nissan Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Ole Miss wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.1 points and 59.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Louisville has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Ole Miss has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Louisville's strong offense (20th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) meets Ole Miss's strong defense (23rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisville puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Ole Miss's elite offense (6th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 38.2 points against an average defense) against Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisville by 18 and Ole Miss by 27 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ABC.
Result: Louisville 38, Ole Miss 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.1 points and the total by 19.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisville / Ole Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ole Miss -8.5 → Ole Miss -6.5 | 52.5 → 54.75 | +215 / -264 |
| Bovada | Ole Miss -8.5 → Ole Miss -6.5 | 52.5 → 55 | +220 / -270 |
| DraftKings | Ole Miss -6.5 | 54.5 | +210 / -258 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ole Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ole Miss -4 | 59.5 | 61% |
| Market consensus | Ole Miss -6.5 | 54.8 | 70% |
| Blended projection | Ole Miss -6 | 55.4 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ole Miss win probability
- model 61% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Ole Miss -4.1 · market Ole Miss -6.5 · difference -2.4 pts (Ole Miss view)
- Total
- model 59.5 · market 54.75 · difference +4.8
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward Louisville than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisville 27.7, Ole Miss 31.8 | Ole Miss 61%right winner | 1.1 | 19.5 |
| New formula | Louisville 26.1, Ole Miss 32.2 | Ole Miss 64%right winner | 3.1 | 20.6 |
Final: Louisville 38, Ole Miss 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisville vs Ole Miss: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Louisville | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.9#46 | 36.9#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.2#38 | 21.1#37 |
| Yards per play | 6.41#28 | 6.86#16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.76#8 | 5.45#41 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.4#60 | 182.8#50 |
| Net passing yards per game | 228.8#62 | 317.9#3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.8#21 | 165.9#77 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 173.6#14 | 193.7#34 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.15#88 | 0.87#41 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31#35 | 0.73#116 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#34 | 2.13#57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.85#80 | 1.20#18 |
| Stat | Louisville | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#69 | +0.12#23 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09#18 | +0.03#86 |
| Success rate | 45.3%#37 | 47.8%#16 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.9%#16 | 40.1%#48 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#64 | 14.2%#21 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#27 | 11.5%#46 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#41 | 12.0%#82 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#84 | 10.6%#26 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.86#79 | 4.62#14 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74#54 | 3.38#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#6 | own 29#103 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#43 | own 28#28 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5#103 | 73.0#9 |
| Stat | Louisville | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#20 | +0.04#65 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#101 | +0.21#16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#53 | +0.12#126 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.16#18 | -0.05#42 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.7%#8 | 45.1%#50 |
| Passing success rate | 41.0%#68 | 50.5%#6 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2%#114 | 20.2%#102 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5%#102 | 38.4%#8 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.3%#7 | 30.4%#81 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.6%#93 | 43.1%#49 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.5%#14 | 38.5%#50 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#37 | 65.3%#45 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.4%#65 | 55.0%#33 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisville schedule · Ole Miss schedule · all Week 1 projections
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