Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected LSU 29.7, Ole Miss 24.4 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: LSU wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 54 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
LSU (No. 7) is 2-0, scoring 48 and allowing 12 points per game (+36 per game). Ole Miss (No. 8) is 2-0, scoring 41 and allowing 23.5 points per game (+17.5 per game).
LSU's strong offense (18th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.2 points against an average defense) meets Ole Miss's strong defense (32nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points LSU puts up. Ole Miss's strong offense (15th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.4 points against an average defense) meets LSU's elite defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ole Miss puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between LSU by 28 and Ole Miss by 17 about 80% of the time.
Ole Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. LSU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: LSU 24, Ole Miss 32. Ole Miss won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (LSU / Ole Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -0.75 → LSU -2.75 | 58 → 58.75 | -156.5 / +127 |
| DraftKings | Ole Miss -1.5 → LSU -3 | 57.5 → 58.5 | -148 / +124 |
| Bovada | LSU -3 → LSU -2.5 | 58.5 → 59 | -165 / +130 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ole Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | LSU -5.5 | 54.0 | 36% |
| Market consensus | LSU -2.5 | 58.8 | 42% |
| Blended projection | LSU -3 | 58.6 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ole Miss win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model LSU -5.3 · market LSU -2.75 · difference -2.5 pts (Ole Miss view)
- Total
- model 54.0 · market 58.75 · difference -4.7
Model margin is 2.5 pts more toward LSU than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | LSU 29.7, Ole Miss 24.4 | LSU 64%wrong winner | 13.3 | 2.0 |
| New formula | LSU 26.7, Ole Miss 30.5 | Ole Miss 60%right winner | 4.2 | 1.3 |
Final: LSU 24, Ole Miss 32. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
LSU vs Ole Miss: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | LSU | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 48.0#18 | 41.0#36 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0#24 | 23.5#83 |
| Yards per play | 7.23#30 | 6.90#40 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.37#5 | 6.73#123 |
| Rushing yards per game | 228.5#33 | 150.5#94 |
| Net passing yards per game | 418.5#3 | 311.5#21 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 45.5#2 | 177.0#108 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 126.5#17 | 253.5#112 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.50#132 | 1.00#80 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#6 | 0.50#90 |
| Sacks per game | 5.50#2 | 2.00#55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#105 | 0.50#10 |
| Stat | LSU | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#118 | +0.16#31 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.89#1 | +0.11#109 |
| Success rate | 45.0%#51 | 49.5%#16 |
| Success rate allowed | 9.5%#1 | 42.3%#101 |
| Explosive play rate | 20.6%#2 | 10.6%#111 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 4.8%#2 | 14.9%#124 |
| Havoc rate | 36.5%#1 | 15.0%#54 |
| Havoc allowed | 18.3%#131 | 10.1%#21 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.10#76 | 4.78#27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.25#101 | 3.12#23 |
| Average starting field position | own 37#14 | own 31#66 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#57 | own 30#94 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 89.5#2 | 67.0#59 |
| Stat | LSU | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#37 | +0.12#45 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21#127 | +0.20#39 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.77#1 | +0.01#83 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.97#1 | +0.21#116 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.3%#61 | 53.6%#21 |
| Passing success rate | 43.8%#69 | 51.6%#29 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#60 | 18.6%#92 |
| Passing-down success rate | 46.3%#5 | 34.1%#47 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 3.4%#1 | 24.4%#31 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 63.6%#8 | 35.0%#100 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 22.2%#13 | 36.7%#69 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#85 | 80.0%#17 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 100.0%#130 | 30.7%#12 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: LSU schedule · Ole Miss schedule · all Week 3 projections
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