Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected App State 35.4, Charlotte 21.5 at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: App State wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.9 points and 56.8 combined points.
Charlotte is 0-2, scoring 25 and allowing 42 points per game (-17 per game). App State is 2-0, scoring 41 and allowing 13.5 points per game (+27.5 per game).
App State's below-average defense (89th) should limit Charlotte's struggling offense (134th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: App State's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against Charlotte's struggling defense (136th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Charlotte by 9 and App State by 36 about 80% of the time.
App State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour App State by about 11.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Charlotte 21, App State 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.9 points and the total by 9.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Charlotte / App State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | App State -20 → App State -16.25 | 52 → 52.5 | +725 / -1300 |
| Bovada | App State -20.5 → App State -16 | 50.5 → 52.5 | +800 / -1600 |
| DraftKings | App State -19.5 → App State -16.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +650 / -1000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | App State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | App State -14 | 56.8 | 82% |
| Market consensus | App State -16.5 | 52.5 | 88% |
| Blended projection | App State -16 | 53.3 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- App State win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 88% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model App State -13.9 · market App State -16.25 · difference -2.3 pts (App State view)
- Total
- model 56.8 · market 52.5 · difference +4.3
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Charlotte than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Charlotte 21.5, App State 35.4 | App State 82%right winner | 8.9 | 9.8 |
| New formula | Charlotte 18.9, App State 38.9 | App State 90%right winner | 15.0 | 10.7 |
Final: Charlotte 21, App State 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Charlotte vs App State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Charlotte | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0#93 | 41.0#37 |
| Points allowed per game | 42.0#134 | 13.5#40 |
| Yards per play | 6.86#43 | 7.30#28 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.78#125 | 5.23#68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.0#66 | 221.5#36 |
| Net passing yards per game | 276.5#36 | 296.5#26 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 208.0#123 | 137.0#81 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.0#77 | 210.5#83 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#115 | 0.50#55 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#102 | 2.00#13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#88 | 2.00#67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#47 | 1.50#72 |
| Stat | Charlotte | App State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#76 | +0.11#54 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#131 | 0.00#60 |
| Success rate | 44.1%#61 | 42.8%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 52.3%#136 | 41.0%#79 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.9%#32 | 14.0%#45 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#107 | 11.4%#68 |
| Havoc rate | 11.0%#120 | 14.3%#67 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3%#54 | 13.0%#64 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.82#99 | 4.18#70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.54#132 | 3.15#28 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#50 | own 34#32 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#123 | own 23#14 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#62 | 71.0#34 |
| Stat | Charlotte | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#74 | +0.01#98 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#69 | +0.24#31 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#116 | +0.13#114 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.30#125 | -0.13#24 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.9%#84 | 34.4%#122 |
| Passing success rate | 46.8%#55 | 56.9%#17 |
| Run stuff rate | 24.2%#130 | 19.5%#100 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.7%#49 | 35.9%#30 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 51.3%#136 | 25.1%#36 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.4%#47 | 36.4%#95 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.4%#119 | 29.6%#36 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.8%#111 | 62.5%#79 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 84.8%#126 | 47.3%#34 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charlotte schedule · App State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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