Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Temple 36.5, Charlotte 17.6 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Temple wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.9 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Charlotte is 0-6, scoring 16 and allowing 42.2 points per game (-26.2 per game). Temple is 2-4, scoring 24.8 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-1.5 per game).
Expect Charlotte to find it hard going: Temple's below-average defense (107th) outranks Charlotte's struggling offense (138th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 14.1 points against an average defense). Temple's below-average offense (102nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Charlotte's struggling defense (138th); that mismatch is where most of Temple's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Charlotte by 4 and Temple by 41 about 80% of the time.
Temple gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Temple by about 16.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Charlotte 38, Temple 31. Charlotte won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 25.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Charlotte / Temple) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Temple -23.25 → Temple -18.5 | 50 → 46.75 | +900 / -1775 |
| DraftKings | Temple -23.5 → Temple -17.5 | 49.5 → 47.5 | +800 / -1350 |
| Bovada | Temple -23 → Temple -19.5 | 50.5 → 46 | +1000 / -2200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Temple win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Temple -19 | 54.1 | 89% |
| Market consensus | Temple -18.5 | 46.8 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Temple -18.5 | 48.2 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Temple win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Temple -18.9 · market Temple -18.5 · difference +0.4 pts (Temple view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 46.75 · difference +7.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Charlotte 17.6, Temple 36.5 | Temple 89%wrong winner | 25.9 | 14.9 |
| New formula | Charlotte 18.2, Temple 35.9 | Temple 88%wrong winner | 24.7 | 15.0 |
Final: Charlotte 38, Temple 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Charlotte vs Temple: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Charlotte | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.0#131 | 24.8#94 |
| Points allowed per game | 42.2#137 | 26.3#96 |
| Yards per play | 5.63#102 | 6.44#50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.41#122 | 6.19#109 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.3#130 | 206.5#35 |
| Net passing yards per game | 193.2#99 | 165.8#121 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 194.2#117 | 161.3#79 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.0#127 | 239.8#111 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83#137 | 0.67#46 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#130 | 0.50#116 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#105 | 1.33#112 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#81 | 2.17#93 |
| Stat | Charlotte | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10#132 | +0.13#51 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#127 | +0.18#125 |
| Success rate | 35.5%#128 | 43.1%#69 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.3%#134 | 45.7%#117 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#51 | 14.1%#41 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#90 | 14.4%#120 |
| Havoc rate | 11.0%#124 | 9.2%#137 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4%#118 | 9.8%#12 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.86#132 | 3.53#114 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.20#137 | 4.50#116 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#120 | own 27#121 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#137 | own 30#88 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.8#136 | 57.8#130 |
| Stat | Charlotte | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#113 | +0.13#44 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#127 | +0.13#58 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#81 | +0.14#121 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34#135 | +0.23#120 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.3%#126 | 45.7%#61 |
| Passing success rate | 35.6%#121 | 39.1%#100 |
| Run stuff rate | 25.2%#137 | 15.5%#46 |
| Passing-down success rate | 20.2%#136 | 31.3%#75 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 40.8%#132 | 36.2%#121 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.3%#131 | 41.4%#74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.7%#116 | 49.4%#131 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5%#105 | 53.3%#113 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 78.6%#130 | 60.0%#82 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charlotte schedule · Temple schedule · all Week 7 projections
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