Matchup analysis
Our model projects Navy 36, Charlotte 19 at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Navy wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.8 points and 55.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Navy is 2-5 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.7 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+0.6 per game). Charlotte is 1-6 against the 62nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.1 and allowing 40.6 points per game (-21.5 per game).
Navy's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Charlotte's struggling defense (137th); that mismatch is where most of Navy's projected points come from. Expect Charlotte to find it hard going: Navy's below-average defense (86th) outranks Charlotte's struggling offense (135th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Navy by 40 and Charlotte by 5 about 80% of the time.
Charlotte gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Navy is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Navy vs Charlotte: stat comparison
| Stat | Navy | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.7#64 | 19.1#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.1#107 | 40.6#137 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#26 | 5.83#87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14#104 | 6.55#126 |
| Rushing yards per game | 312.9#3 | 123.6#125 |
| Net passing yards per game | 114.9#135 | 208.1#84 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.9#37 | 197.9#120 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.6#114 | 260.7#127 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#19 | 1.71#136 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#112 | 0.29#137 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#61 | 1.57#102 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#34 | 1.71#60 |
| Stat | Navy | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27#6 | -0.03#126 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#107 | +0.23#135 |
| Success rate | 47.5%#26 | 37.6%#127 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.5%#64 | 48.7%#133 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#43 | 13.8%#39 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#58 | 14.0%#117 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#68 | 11.4%#122 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#19 | 14.4%#101 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.46#38 | 3.38#121 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.90#78 | 5.04#135 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#108 | own 27#115 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#120 | own 34#135 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#85 | 56.9#137 |
| Stat | Navy | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.31#1 | -0.01#114 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#44 | -0.05#121 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#15 | +0.11#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34#134 | +0.35#135 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.8%#8 | 35.9%#132 |
| Passing success rate | 33.3%#133 | 39.1%#98 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.9%#6 | 25.0%#137 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.5%#121 | 27.8%#106 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3%#66 | 39.5%#133 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.8%#51 | 32.9%#127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.1%#123 | 45.5%#124 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.8%#10 | 62.5%#65 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.9%#76 | 75.0%#131 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Navy schedule · Charlotte schedule · all Week 13 projections
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