Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana 31.3, Charlotte 24.4 at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Week 4. That is a lean: Louisiana wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and 55.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Louisiana is 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+6.4 per game). Charlotte is 0-3, scoring 23.7 and allowing 36.7 points per game (-13 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Louisiana's below-average offense (83rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Charlotte's struggling defense (134th). Louisiana's below-average defense (94th) should limit Charlotte's struggling offense (127th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana by 29 and Charlotte by 16 about 80% of the time.
Charlotte gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisiana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Louisiana 34, Charlotte 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.1 points and the total by 14.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Louisiana / Charlotte) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Louisiana -12.25 → Louisiana -9.25 | 51.25 → 49.5 | -405 / +310 |
| DraftKings | Louisiana -14.5 → Louisiana -9.5 | 52.5 → 49.5 | -375 / +295 |
| Bovada | Louisiana -10 → Louisiana -9 | 50 → 49.5 | -435 / +325 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Charlotte win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana -7 | 55.6 | 33% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana -9 | 49.5 | 23% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana -9 | 50.7 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Charlotte win probability
- model 33% · market (no-vig) 23% · difference +9 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana -6.9 · market Louisiana -9.25 · difference +2.3 pts (Charlotte view)
- Total
- model 55.6 · market 49.5 · difference +6.1
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Charlotte than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisiana 31.3, Charlotte 24.4 | Louisiana 67%right winner | 20.1 | 14.6 |
| New formula | Louisiana 31.7, Charlotte 24.8 | Louisiana 68%right winner | 20.1 | 15.5 |
Final: Louisiana 34, Charlotte 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisiana vs Charlotte: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Louisiana | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.7#81 | 23.7#107 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.3#77 | 36.7#129 |
| Yards per play | 6.19#76 | 6.03#84 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.02#49 | 6.28#112 |
| Rushing yards per game | 212.0#38 | 134.3#113 |
| Net passing yards per game | 180.0#102 | 253.3#47 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 131.0#61 | 168.7#97 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 180.3#54 | 243.7#112 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#89 | 1.67#124 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67#21 | 0.67#95 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#63 | 1.00#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#67 | 1.00#45 |
| Stat | Louisiana | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#90 | -0.02#116 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#97 | +0.14#118 |
| Success rate | 39.0%#113 | 40.1%#110 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9%#110 | 48.6%#132 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4%#105 | 13.6%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#53 | 13.7%#110 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#109 | 10.4%#127 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.1%#5 | 13.6%#81 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.58#43 | 3.80#100 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.86#124 | 4.89#126 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#33 | own 30#72 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#27 | own 35#134 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3#93 | 64.3#83 |
| Stat | Louisiana | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#29 | -0.06#119 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14#125 | +0.01#95 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.13#18 | +0.00#70 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.30#128 | +0.30#127 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.6%#108 | 37.5%#112 |
| Passing success rate | 39.7%#95 | 42.3%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5%#68 | 26.1%#137 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.8%#69 | 24.6%#121 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.7%#111 | 52.6%#138 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#110 | 38.1%#100 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.5%#122 | 48.6%#124 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.8%#27 | 60.0%#89 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.5%#112 | 84.6%#129 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana schedule · Charlotte schedule · all Week 4 projections
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