Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Memphis 36, Charlotte 19.9 at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Memphis wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.1 points and 55.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Memphis is 3-1, scoring 33.5 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.5 per game). Charlotte is 0-4, scoring 19.5 and allowing 36 points per game (-16.5 per game).
Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (62nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Charlotte's struggling defense (132nd); that mismatch is where most of Memphis's projected points come from. Expect Charlotte to find it hard going: Memphis's below-average defense (93rd) outranks Charlotte's struggling offense (135th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Memphis by 39 and Charlotte by 6 about 80% of the time.
Charlotte gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Memphis is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Memphis 59, Charlotte 8. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 34.9 points and the total by 11.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Memphis / Charlotte) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Memphis -21 → Memphis -19.5 | 54.25 → 52.25 | -1300 / +750 |
| DraftKings | Memphis -21.5 → Memphis -18.5 | 54.5 → 52.5 | -1200 / +750 |
| Bovada | Memphis -20.5 | 54 → 52 | -1400 / +750 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Charlotte win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Memphis -16 | 55.9 | 15% |
| Market consensus | Memphis -19.5 | 52.3 | 11% |
| Blended projection | Memphis -19 | 53.1 | 10% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Charlotte win probability
- model 15% · market (no-vig) 11% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Memphis -16.1 · market Memphis -19.5 · difference +3.4 pts (Charlotte view)
- Total
- model 55.9 · market 52.25 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward Charlotte than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Memphis 36.0, Charlotte 19.9 | Memphis 85%right winner | 34.9 | 11.1 |
| New formula | Memphis 36.0, Charlotte 20.2 | Memphis 85%right winner | 35.2 | 10.8 |
Final: Memphis 59, Charlotte 8. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Memphis vs Charlotte: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Memphis | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.5#56 | 19.5#123 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0#96 | 36.0#130 |
| Yards per play | 8.36#2 | 5.49#112 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.73#125 | 5.58#78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 249.0#14 | 108.5#132 |
| Net passing yards per game | 269.5#36 | 215.5#85 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 204.0#124 | 162.8#92 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.8#116 | 218.3#85 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#103 | 1.75#130 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#59 | 0.50#115 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#41 | 1.50#99 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#47 | 1.00#30 |
| Stat | Memphis | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.26#12 | -0.12#134 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#106 | +0.09#93 |
| Success rate | 48.0%#26 | 36.6%#128 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.0%#79 | 45.6%#118 |
| Explosive play rate | 19.1%#2 | 12.0%#94 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.8%#122 | 10.5%#49 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5%#100 | 12.3%#104 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4%#35 | 15.5%#115 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.82#24 | 3.60#109 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.75#67 | 4.79#127 |
| Average starting field position | own 23#138 | own 28#103 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#31 | own 37#138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0#103 | 59.0#123 |
| Stat | Memphis | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#28 | -0.13#134 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.38#13 | -0.12#122 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.24#131 | -0.00#60 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00#60 | +0.20#111 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7%#61 | 35.2%#123 |
| Passing success rate | 50.9%#20 | 37.5%#112 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9%#46 | 27.4%#137 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.9%#29 | 20.9%#133 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.8%#41 | 43.6%#136 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.3%#43 | 32.7%#124 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4%#90 | 42.6%#104 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.9%#110 | 59.9%#87 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.4%#114 | 81.2%#127 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Memphis schedule · Charlotte schedule · all Week 5 projections
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