Matchup analysis
Our model projects East Carolina 35, Charlotte 18 at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: East Carolina wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.7 points and 53 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
East Carolina is 3-4 against the 95th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-1.3 per game). Charlotte is 1-6 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.1 and allowing 40.6 points per game (-21.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: East Carolina's below-average offense (93rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense) against Charlotte's struggling defense (137th). East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th) should limit Charlotte's struggling offense (135th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Carolina by 40 and Charlotte by 5 about 80% of the time.
Charlotte gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. East Carolina is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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East Carolina vs Charlotte: stat comparison
| Stat | East Carolina | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0#94 | 19.1#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3#94 | 40.6#137 |
| Yards per play | 5.50#111 | 5.83#87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.12#34 | 6.55#126 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.6#83 | 123.6#125 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.7#94 | 208.1#84 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.4#78 | 197.9#120 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.1#58 | 260.7#127 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#110 | 1.71#136 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#81 | 0.29#137 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#33 | 1.57#102 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#104 | 1.71#60 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#109 | -0.03#126 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#20 | +0.23#135 |
| Success rate | 38.6%#122 | 37.6%#127 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1%#22 | 48.7%#133 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#77 | 13.8%#39 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#102 | 14.0%#117 |
| Havoc rate | 16.3%#20 | 11.4%#122 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#69 | 14.4%#101 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.41#119 | 3.38#121 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.89#77 | 5.04#135 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#65 | own 27#115 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#98 | own 34#135 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#69 | 56.9#137 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00#111 | -0.01#114 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#98 | -0.05#121 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#22 | +0.11#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#30 | +0.35#135 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7%#121 | 35.9%#132 |
| Passing success rate | 37.6%#112 | 39.1%#98 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#82 | 25.0%#137 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.9%#120 | 27.8%#106 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4%#76 | 39.5%#133 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.7%#122 | 32.9%#127 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2%#36 | 45.5%#124 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.8%#132 | 62.5%#65 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.7%#53 | 75.0%#131 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Carolina schedule · Charlotte schedule · all Week 11 projections
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