Matchup analysis
Our model projects UAB 32, Charlotte 21 at Protective Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: UAB wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.6 points and 53.2 combined points.
Charlotte is 1-6 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.1 and allowing 40.6 points per game (-21.5 per game). UAB is 4-3 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-1.3 per game).
UAB's struggling defense (120th) should limit Charlotte's struggling offense (135th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: UAB's struggling offense (119th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense) against Charlotte's struggling defense (137th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Charlotte by 12 and UAB by 33 about 80% of the time.
UAB gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UAB by about 8.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Charlotte vs UAB: stat comparison
| Stat | Charlotte | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.1#127 | 23.3#103 |
| Points allowed per game | 40.6#137 | 24.6#73 |
| Yards per play | 5.83#87 | 5.39#119 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.55#126 | 5.28#46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 123.6#125 | 186.7#50 |
| Net passing yards per game | 208.1#84 | 168.3#124 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.9#120 | 200.3#123 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 260.7#127 | 132.1#1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.71#136 | 0.71#52 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.29#137 | 0.86#79 |
| Sacks per game | 1.57#102 | 2.14#63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.71#60 | 2.71#120 |
| Stat | Charlotte | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#126 | +0.07#79 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.23#135 | +0.02#60 |
| Success rate | 37.6%#127 | 42.4%#75 |
| Success rate allowed | 48.7%#133 | 43.0%#95 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8%#39 | 10.9%#118 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0%#117 | 9.9%#20 |
| Havoc rate | 11.4%#122 | 12.6%#105 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#101 | 15.0%#110 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38#121 | 3.53#111 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.04#135 | 3.98#87 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#115 | own 31#55 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 34#135 | own 30#90 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.9#137 | 65.9#70 |
| Stat | Charlotte | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01#114 | +0.15#28 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#121 | -0.04#117 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11#109 | +0.06#82 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.35#135 | -0.05#34 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.9%#132 | 46.2%#49 |
| Passing success rate | 39.1%#98 | 36.1%#119 |
| Run stuff rate | 25.0%#137 | 17.2%#75 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.8%#106 | 32.9%#44 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.5%#133 | 27.6%#46 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.9%#127 | 44.2%#45 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.5%#124 | 42.4%#104 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#65 | 41.4%#134 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.0%#131 | 71.6%#124 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Charlotte schedule · UAB schedule · all Week 10 projections
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