Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Charlotte 34.7, The Citadel 12.9 at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Charlotte wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.8 points and 47.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
The Citadel is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 42 points per game (-28 per game). Charlotte has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
The Citadel plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Charlotte's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between The Citadel by 1 and Charlotte by 44 about 80% of the time.
Charlotte gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Charlotte by about 19.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: The Citadel 43, Charlotte 41. The Citadel won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (The Citadel / Charlotte) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Charlotte -17.75 → Charlotte -20.5 | 46.5 → 49.25 | +850 / -1525 |
| Bovada | Charlotte -20 → Charlotte -20.5 | 46.5 → 49 | +750 / -1400 |
| DraftKings | Charlotte -15.5 → Charlotte -20.5 | 46.5 → 49.5 | +950 / -1650 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Charlotte win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Charlotte -22 | 47.5 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Charlotte -20.5 | 49.3 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Charlotte -21 | 50.0 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Charlotte win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Charlotte -21.8 · market Charlotte -20.5 · difference +1.3 pts (Charlotte view)
- Total
- model 47.5 · market 49.25 · difference -1.7
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Charlotte than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | The Citadel 12.9, Charlotte 34.7 | Charlotte 92%wrong winner | 23.8 | 36.5 |
| New formula | The Citadel 18.4, Charlotte 34.7 | Charlotte 83%wrong winner | 18.3 | 30.9 |
Final: The Citadel 43, Charlotte 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
The Citadel vs Charlotte: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | The Citadel | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5 | 14.3#133 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 36.3#131 |
| Yards per play | 5.56 | 4.99#129 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.78 | 6.48#125 |
| Rushing yards per game | 210.8 | 89.7#136 |
| Net passing yards per game | 116.5 | 209.6#90 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.4 | 197.5#120 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 271.5 | 264.9#128 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60 | 1.67#129 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40 | 0.92#86 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.08#129 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.70 | 2.33#109 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.20#136 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.11#121 |
| Success rate | 38.8% | 34.0%#135 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% | 53.3%#136 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% | 10.7%#120 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 14.1%#119 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 8.3%#134 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 14.2%#114 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.26 | 3.02#130 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.18 | 4.16#104 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | own 28#114 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | own 32#118 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.9 | 60.0#128 |
| Stat | The Citadel | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.32#136 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.10#112 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.07#113 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25 | +0.15#116 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.9% | 33.3%#136 |
| Passing success rate | 39.3% | 34.6%#124 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4% | 22.8%#129 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 23.7%#131 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 34.6%#122 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.6% | 34.7%#120 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 46.1%#123 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.9% | 46.4%#127 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.0% | 78.8%#134 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: The Citadel schedule · Charlotte schedule · all Week 1 projections
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