2026 schedule
The Citadel Bulldogs
2026 season so far
The Citadel is 2-6 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.5 and allowing 33.8 points per game (-15.3 per game).
The Citadel plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Mercer in Week 9. We project The Citadel 16, Mercer 34 — The Citadel wins 12% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Wofford Terriers
1-0 · SOS #120
Loss 14-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Wofford by 6.7
Total 41.7
DraftKings
WOF -7.5
Total 45.5
Final Wofford by 28. Wofford beat the spread. 56 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Wofford -7.5 (open Wofford -8.5) · O/U 45.5 · ML +305 / -415 · Wofford 77% no-vig · model vs market -0.8 pts, -10 pct pts (Wofford view)
ESPN+ Gibbs StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - at
Charlotte 49ers
0-1 · SOS #80
Win 43-41
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Charlotte by 21.8
Total 47.6
DraftKings
CLT -20.5
Total 49.5
Final The Citadel by 2. The Citadel beat the spread. 84 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Charlotte -20.5 (open Charlotte -17.75) · O/U 49.25 (open 46.5) · ML +850 / -1525 · Charlotte 90% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +3 pct pts (Charlotte view)
ESPN+ Jerry Richardson StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - vs
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
1-2 · SOS #61
Loss 20-26
Week 2
Our number· pregame
The Citadel by 4.2
Total 44.2
DraftKings
CIT -3
Total 45.5
Final Charleston Southern by 6. Charleston Southern beat the spread. 46 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: The Citadel -3 (open Charleston Southern -1.5) · O/U 45.5 · ML +125 / -156 · The Citadel 58% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +3 pct pts (The Citadel view)
ESPN+ Johnson Hagood StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - vs
Chattanooga Mocs
3-2 · SOS #87
Loss 8-27
Week 4
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 52.4
DraftKings
UTC -10.5
Total 46.5
Final Chattanooga by 19. Chattanooga beat the spread. 35 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Chattanooga -10.5 (open Chattanooga -11.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 47.5) · ML -340 / +257 · The Citadel 27% no-vig · model vs market +10.1 pts, +22 pct pts (The Citadel view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 10 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHS)ESPN+ Johnson Hagood StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
South Carolina State Bulldogs
5-1 · SOS #155
Win 34-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
South Carolina State by 24.6
Total 57
DraftKings
SCST -17.5
Total 48.5
Final The Citadel by 3. The Citadel beat the spread. 65 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: South Carolina State -17.5 (open South Carolina State -20.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 47.5) · ML +574 / -950 · South Carolina State 86% no-vig · model vs market +7.1 pts, +9 pct pts (South Carolina State view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 84°F, Wind 5 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOGB)Oliver C. Dawson StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
5-2 · SOS #113
Loss 16-34
Week 6
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 5.5
Total 57.7
DraftKings
ETSU -7
Total 55.5
Final East Tennessee State by 18. East Tennessee State beat the spread. 50 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: East Tennessee State -7 (open East Tennessee State -11.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 50.5) · ML -297 / +228 · The Citadel 29% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +7 pct pts (The Citadel view)
Game-time weather: Light drizzle and fog/mist, 79°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJZI)ESPN+ Johnson Hagood StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the openFlip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over - at
Texas A&M Aggies
4-3 · SOS #27
Loss 0-41
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Texas A&M by 41
Total 51.4
DraftKings
TA&M -46.5
Total 56.5
Final Texas A&M by 41. The Citadel beat the spread. 41 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Texas A&M -46.5 (open Texas A&M -45.5) · O/U 56.5 · model vs market -5.5 pts (Texas A&M view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 10 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCLL)SECN+ Kyle FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitNon-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on) - vs
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
7-1 · SOS #94
Loss 13-28
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Tennessee Tech by 13.3
Total 55.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Tennessee Tech by 15. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 73°F, Wind 14 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJZI)ESPN+ Johnson Hagood StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
Mercer Bears
6-2 · SOS #130
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 16-34 · 12%
Our number
Mercer by 18
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 60°F, Wind 3 mph NE, 2% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Five Star StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Furman Paladins
2-6 · SOS #20
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 22-22 · 51%
Our number
dead even
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Johnson Hagood StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
VMI Keydets
0-8 · SOS #71
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 36-14 · 92%
Our number
The Citadel by 22
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Foster StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Western Carolina Catamounts
3-5 · SOS #27
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 24-35 · 24%
Our number
Western Carolina by 11
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ E.J. Whitmire Stadium
Times shown in your local time
The Citadel Bulldogs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-27.5
Adj. offense
11.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
39.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 18.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 33.8 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.08 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.27 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 208.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 101.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 187.8 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 185.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.75 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.88 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.11 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 47.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.5% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.13 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.01 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 17 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 17 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 61.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.06 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.16 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.05 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 38.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.5% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.2% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 28.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 38.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 45.2% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 36.5% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 44.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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