Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Chattanooga 26.4, The Citadel 26 at Johnson Hagood Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Chattanooga wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 52.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Chattanooga is 2-2, scoring 22.8 and allowing 15.8 points per game (+7 per game). The Citadel is 1-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-10.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chattanooga by 23 and The Citadel by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Citadel gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Chattanooga is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chattanooga 27, The Citadel 8. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18.6 points and the total by 17.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Chattanooga / The Citadel) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Chattanooga -11.5 → Chattanooga -10.5 | 47.5 → 46.5 | -340 / +257 |
| DraftKings | Chattanooga -11.5 → Chattanooga -10.5 | 47.5 → 46.5 | -340 / +257 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | The Citadel win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Chattanooga -0.5 | 52.4 | 49% |
| Market consensus | Chattanooga -10.5 | 46.5 | 27% |
| Blended projection | Chattanooga -9 | 47.9 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- The Citadel win probability
- model 49% · market (no-vig) 27% · difference +22 pts
- Margin
- model Chattanooga -0.4 · market Chattanooga -10.5 · difference +10.1 pts (The Citadel view)
- Total
- model 52.4 · market 46.5 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 10.1 pts more toward The Citadel than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chattanooga 26.4, The Citadel 26.0 | Chattanooga 51%right winner | 18.6 | 17.4 |
| New formula | Chattanooga 25.6, The Citadel 26.5 | The Citadel 53%wrong winner | 20.0 | 17.1 |
Final: Chattanooga 27, The Citadel 8. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Chattanooga vs The Citadel: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Chattanooga | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.0 | 26.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.36 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.45 | 6.78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 205.5 | 210.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.7 | 116.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.8 | 167.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.4 | 271.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 0.60 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 0.40 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 1.70 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 38.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 46.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.32 | 2.26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 4.18 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 58.9 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.25 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.1% | 37.9% |
| Passing success rate | 45.2% | 39.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 21.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.4% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7% | 34.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.5% | 43.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.5% | 36.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.5% | 67.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Chattanooga schedule · The Citadel schedule · all Week 4 projections
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