2026 schedule
Chattanooga Mocs
2026 season so far
Chattanooga is 5-3 against the 87th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 13.3 points per game (+9.3 per game).
Chattanooga plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs VMI in Week 9. We project Chattanooga 41, VMI 3 — Chattanooga wins 99% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
West Georgia Wolves
0-1 · SOS #29
Win 24-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
West Georgia by 8.7
Total 53.5
DraftKings
UTC -3.5
Total 50.5
Final Chattanooga by 14. Chattanooga beat the spread. 34 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Chattanooga -3.5 · O/U 50.5 · model vs market +12.2 pts (West Georgia view)
ESPN+ University Stadium (GA) - vs
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
2-0 · SOS #94
Loss 9-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Tennessee Tech by 6
Total 60
DraftKings
TNTC -10.5
Total 48.5
Final Tennessee Tech by 15. Tennessee Tech beat the spread. 33 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee Tech -10.5 · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML -504 / +358 · Chattanooga 21% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +14 pct pts (Chattanooga view)
ESPN+ Finley StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - at
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
1-2 · SOS #36
Loss 17-22
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Eastern Kentucky by 3
Total 49.2
DraftKings
UTC -3
Total 48.5
Final Eastern Kentucky by 5. Eastern Kentucky beat the spread. 39 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Chattanooga -3 · O/U 48.5 · ML -169 / +135 · Eastern Kentucky 40% no-vig · model vs market +6.0 pts, +17 pct pts (Eastern Kentucky view)
ESPN+ Roy Kidd StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitBounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last gameFlip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over - vs
Wofford Terriers
2-2 · SOS #120
Win 41-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Wofford by 2.6
Total 39
DraftKings
UTC -1.5
Total 43.5
Final Chattanooga by 34. Chattanooga beat the spread. 48 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Chattanooga -1.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML +110 / -137 · Chattanooga 55% no-vig · model vs market -4.1 pts, -12 pct pts (Chattanooga view)
ESPN+ Finley StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed - at
The Citadel Bulldogs
1-3 · SOS #10
Win 27-8
Week 4
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 52.4
DraftKings
UTC -10.5
Total 46.5
Final Chattanooga by 19. Chattanooga beat the spread. 35 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Chattanooga -10.5 (open Chattanooga -11.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 47.5) · ML -340 / +257 · The Citadel 27% no-vig · model vs market +10.1 pts, +22 pct pts (The Citadel view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 10 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHS)ESPN+ Johnson Hagood StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit - at
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
4-2 · SOS #113
Loss 3-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 1.5
Total 55.1
DraftKings
ETSU -3
Total 52.5
Final East Tennessee State by 11. East Tennessee State beat the spread. 17 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Tennessee State -3 · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +119 / -149 · East Tennessee State 57% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -3 pct pts (East Tennessee State view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 73°F, Wind 6 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTRI)ESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Samford Bulldogs
1-5 · SOS #80
Win 19-3
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Chattanooga by 13.1
Total 42.7
DraftKings
UTC -11.5
Total 40.5
Final Chattanooga by 16. Chattanooga beat the spread. 22 points — under the 40.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Chattanooga -11.5 · O/U 40.5 (open 43.5) · ML +314 / -430 · Chattanooga 77% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +3 pct pts (Chattanooga view)
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 63°F, Wind 9 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHA)ESPN+ Finley StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Western Carolina Catamounts
3-5 · SOS #27
Win 41-18
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Western Carolina by 4.2
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
Final Chattanooga by 23. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 71°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (K1A5)ESPN+ E.J. Whitmire StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - vs
VMI Keydets
0-8 · SOS #71
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 41-3 · 99%
Our number
Chattanooga by 38
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Finley StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Mercer Bears
6-2 · SOS #130
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 21-24 · 43%
Our number
Mercer by 3
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Finley StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games - at
Furman Paladins
2-6 · SOS #20
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 23-16 · 67%
Our number
Chattanooga by 7
Total 39
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Paladin StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
#10 Alabama Crimson Tide
6-2 · SOS #2
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 2-45 · 0%
Our number
Alabama by 43
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SECN+ Bryant-Denny StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Chattanooga Mocs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-15.9
Adj. offense
15.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
31.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 22.6 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 13.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.91 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.73 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 208.4 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 76.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 131.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 152.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.38 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.75 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.13 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.12 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 37.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 35.8% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.1% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 9.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.98 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.22 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 58.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.19 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.05 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.20 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 29.3% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.1% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 21.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 38.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 31.5% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 50.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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