Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wofford 20.8, Chattanooga 18.2 at Finley Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Wofford wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.6 points and 38.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Wofford is 2-1, scoring 24.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+3.7 per game). Chattanooga is 1-2, scoring 16.7 and allowing 18.7 points per game (-2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wofford by 25 and Chattanooga by 20 about 80% of the time.
Chattanooga gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Wofford is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Wofford 7, Chattanooga 41. Chattanooga won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 36.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wofford / Chattanooga) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Chattanooga -1.5 | 43.5 | +110 / -137 |
| DraftKings | Chattanooga -1.5 | 43.5 | +110 / -137 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Chattanooga win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wofford -2.5 | 38.9 | 43% |
| Market consensus | Chattanooga -1.5 | 43.5 | 55% |
| Blended projection | Chattanooga -1 | 44.5 | 52% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Chattanooga win probability
- model 43% · market (no-vig) 55% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Wofford -2.6 · market Chattanooga -1.5 · difference -4.1 pts (Chattanooga view)
- Total
- model 38.9 · market 43.5 · difference -4.6
Model margin is 4.1 pts more toward Wofford than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wofford 20.8, Chattanooga 18.2 | Wofford 57%wrong winner | 36.6 | 9.1 |
| New formula | Wofford 20.0, Chattanooga 22.9 | Chattanooga 58%right winner | 31.1 | 5.0 |
Final: Wofford 7, Chattanooga 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wofford vs Chattanooga: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Wofford | Chattanooga |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.8 | 28.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.3 | 33.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.11 | 6.36 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.33 | 6.45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.4 | 205.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 168.5 | 197.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.2 | 173.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.4 | 237.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.73 | 1.18 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64 | 0.91 |
| Sacks per game | 2.09 | 1.27 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.64 | 1.45 |
| Stat | Wofford | Chattanooga |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 35.1% | 40.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 43.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 13.9% |
| Havoc rate | 16.2% | 11.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3% | 14.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95 | 3.69 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.3 | 63.4 |
| Stat | Wofford | Chattanooga |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21 | +0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.2% | 38.1% |
| Passing success rate | 32.4% | 45.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.3% | 17.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.5% | 32.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 37.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 38.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 55.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.9% | 54.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wofford schedule · Chattanooga schedule · all Week 3 projections
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