Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected West Georgia 31.1, Chattanooga 22.4 at University Stadium (GA) in Week 1. That is a solid edge: West Georgia wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.7 points and 53.4 combined points.
Chattanooga has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. West Georgia has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chattanooga by 14 and West Georgia by 31 about 80% of the time.
West Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour West Georgia by about 6.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chattanooga 24, West Georgia 10. Chattanooga won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Chattanooga / West Georgia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Chattanooga -3.5 | 50.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Chattanooga -3.5 | 50.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Georgia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | West Georgia -8.5 | 53.4 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Chattanooga -3.5 | 50.5 | 41% |
| Blended projection | Chattanooga -1.5 | 51.4 | 46% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Georgia win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model West Georgia -8.7 · market Chattanooga -3.5 · difference +12.2 pts (West Georgia view)
- Total
- model 53.4 · market 50.5 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 12.2 pts more toward West Georgia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chattanooga 22.4, West Georgia 31.1 | West Georgia 72%wrong winner | 22.7 | 19.4 |
| New formula | Chattanooga 18.7, West Georgia 33.5 | West Georgia 81%wrong winner | 28.8 | 18.1 |
Final: Chattanooga 24, West Georgia 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Chattanooga vs West Georgia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Chattanooga | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3 | 25.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.0 | 21.2 |
| Yards per play | 6.36 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.45 | 5.46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 205.5 | 228.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.7 | 195.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.8 | 154.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.4 | 209.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 2.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 1.55 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 40.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 37.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 12.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 14.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.32 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 2.51 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 75.8 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.1% | 41.5% |
| Passing success rate | 45.2% | 38.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.4% | 27.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7% | 45.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.5% | 38.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.5% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.5% | 39.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Chattanooga schedule · West Georgia schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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