Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Tennessee State 28.3, Chattanooga 26.8 at William B. Greene Jr. Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: East Tennessee State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 55 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Chattanooga is 3-2, scoring 23.6 and allowing 14.2 points per game (+9.4 per game). East Tennessee State is 3-2, scoring 36.2 and allowing 31.2 points per game (+5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chattanooga by 21 and East Tennessee State by 24 about 80% of the time.
East Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Chattanooga would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Chattanooga 3, East Tennessee State 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.5 points and the total by 38.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Chattanooga / East Tennessee State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Tennessee State -3 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +119 / -149 |
| DraftKings | East Tennessee State -3 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +119 / -149 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | East Tennessee State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Tennessee State -1.5 | 55.0 | 54% |
| Market consensus | East Tennessee State -3 | 52.5 | 57% |
| Blended projection | East Tennessee State -3 | 53.2 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- East Tennessee State win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model East Tennessee State -1.5 · market East Tennessee State -3 · difference -1.5 pts (East Tennessee State view)
- Total
- model 55.0 · market 52.5 · difference +2.5
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Chattanooga than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Chattanooga 26.8, East Tennessee State 28.3 | East Tennessee State 54%right winner | 9.5 | 38.0 |
| New formula | Chattanooga 26.4, East Tennessee State 27.7 | East Tennessee State 53%right winner | 9.7 | 37.1 |
Final: Chattanooga 3, East Tennessee State 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Chattanooga vs East Tennessee State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Chattanooga | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3 | 32.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.0 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.36 | 6.18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.45 | 5.62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 205.5 | 212.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.7 | 241.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.8 | 156.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.4 | 253.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.18 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.91 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.27 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.45 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 40.3% | 43.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.32 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69 | 3.96 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 73.4 |
| Stat | Chattanooga | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.1% | 46.3% |
| Passing success rate | 45.2% | 43.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.6% | 15.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6% | 30.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.4% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.5% | 38.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.5% | 68.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.5% | 61.4% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Chattanooga schedule · East Tennessee State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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