2026 schedule
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
2026 season so far
East Tennessee State is 6-2 against the 113th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.4 and allowing 21.9 points per game (+11.5 per game).
East Tennessee State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Tennessee Tech in Week 9. We project East Tennessee State 28, Tennessee Tech 29 — East Tennessee State wins 49% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Campbell Fighting Camels
1-0 · SOS #109
Loss 37-49
Week 1
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 9.8
Total 61.2
DraftKings
ETSU -7
Total 56.5
Final Campbell by 12. Campbell beat the spread. 86 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Tennessee State -7 · O/U 56.5 (open 55.5) · ML +207 / -267 · East Tennessee State 69% no-vig · model vs market +2.8 pts, +5 pct pts (East Tennessee State view)
ESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. Stadium - vs
Tusculum Pioneers
1-1 · SOS #9
Win 48-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 10.2
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
Final East Tennessee State by 34. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. Stadium - at
North Carolina Tar Heels
2-0 · SOS #10
Loss 3-35
Week 2
Our number· pregame
North Carolina by 28.6
Total 53.2
DraftKings
UNC -36.5
Total 55.5
Final North Carolina by 32. East Tennessee State beat the spread. 38 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Carolina -36 (open North Carolina -35) · O/U 55.25 (open 54.25) · ML +5000 / -100000 · North Carolina 98% no-vig · model vs market -7.4 pts, -1 pct pts (North Carolina view)
ACCNX Kenan Stadium - vs
West Georgia Wolves
0-4 · SOS #29
Win 35-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 10.7
Total 58.1
DraftKings
ETSU -16.5
Total 53.5
Final East Tennessee State by 8. West Georgia beat the spread. 62 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Tennessee State -16.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +450 / -680 · East Tennessee State 83% no-vig · model vs market -5.8 pts, -7 pct pts (East Tennessee State view)
ESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. Stadium - vs
Western Carolina Catamounts
2-3 · SOS #27
Win 58-31
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Western Carolina by 1
Total 68
DraftKings
ETSU -1.5
Total 63.5
Final East Tennessee State by 27. East Tennessee State beat the spread. 89 points — over the 63.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Tennessee State -1.5 · O/U 63.5 (open 62.5) · ML +103 / -128 · East Tennessee State 53% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -6 pct pts (East Tennessee State view)
Game-time weather: 75°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTRI)ESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. Stadium - vs
Chattanooga Mocs
3-3 · SOS #87
Win 14-3
Week 5
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 1.5
Total 55.1
DraftKings
ETSU -3
Total 52.5
Final East Tennessee State by 11. East Tennessee State beat the spread. 17 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Tennessee State -3 · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +119 / -149 · East Tennessee State 57% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -3 pct pts (East Tennessee State view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 73°F, Wind 6 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTRI)ESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. Stadium - at
The Citadel Bulldogs
2-4 · SOS #10
Win 34-16
Week 6
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 5.5
Total 57.7
DraftKings
ETSU -7
Total 55.5
Final East Tennessee State by 18. East Tennessee State beat the spread. 50 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: East Tennessee State -7 (open East Tennessee State -11.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 50.5) · ML -297 / +228 · The Citadel 29% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +7 pct pts (The Citadel view)
Game-time weather: Light drizzle and fog/mist, 79°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJZI)ESPN+ Johnson Hagood Stadium - at
VMI Keydets
0-8 · SOS #71
Win 38-0
Week 8
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 36.4
Total 54.8
Book line
Not posted
Final East Tennessee State by 38. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: 51°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHSP)ESPN+ Foster Stadium - vs
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
7-1 · SOS #94
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 28-29 · 49%
Our number
Tennessee Tech by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. Stadium - vs
Samford Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #80
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 33-17 · 85%
Our number
East Tennessee State by 16
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ William B. Greene Jr. Stadium - at
Wofford Terriers
5-3 · SOS #120
Sat, Nov 14, 6:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 30-22 · 68%
Our number
East Tennessee State by 8
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Gibbs Stadium - at
Mercer Bears
6-2 · SOS #130
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 25-29 · 41%
Our number
Mercer by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Five Star Stadium
Times shown in your local time
East Tennessee State Buccaneers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-12.4
Adj. offense
21.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
33.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 33.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 21.9 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.10 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.28 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 196.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 212.8 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 154.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 178.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.09 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 42.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.8% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.9% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.27 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.47 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 7 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.06 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.13 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.15 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.4% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 45.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 14.6% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.9% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 47.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 68.7% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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