Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Tennessee State 31.6, The Citadel 26.1 at Johnson Hagood Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: East Tennessee State wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
East Tennessee State is 4-2, scoring 32.5 and allowing 26.5 points per game (+6 per game). The Citadel is 2-3, scoring 23.8 and allowing 33.4 points per game (-9.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Tennessee State by 28 and The Citadel by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Citadel gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. East Tennessee State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: East Tennessee State 34, The Citadel 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.5 points and the total by 7.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (East Tennessee State / The Citadel) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Tennessee State -11.5 → East Tennessee State -7 | 50.5 → 55.5 | -297 / +228 |
| DraftKings | East Tennessee State -11.5 → East Tennessee State -7 | 50.5 → 55.5 | -297 / +228 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | The Citadel win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Tennessee State -5.5 | 57.6 | 36% |
| Market consensus | East Tennessee State -7 | 55.5 | 29% |
| Blended projection | East Tennessee State -7 | 56.0 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- The Citadel win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 29% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model East Tennessee State -5.5 · market East Tennessee State -7 · difference +1.5 pts (The Citadel view)
- Total
- model 57.6 · market 55.5 · difference +2.1
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward The Citadel than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Tennessee State 31.6, The Citadel 26.1 | East Tennessee State 64%right winner | 12.5 | 7.6 |
| New formula | East Tennessee State 30.8, The Citadel 26.1 | East Tennessee State 62%right winner | 13.2 | 6.9 |
Final: East Tennessee State 34, The Citadel 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Tennessee State vs The Citadel: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | East Tennessee State | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.5 | 20.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 26.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.18 | 5.56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62 | 6.78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 212.1 | 210.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.6 | 116.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8 | 167.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 253.3 | 271.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.60 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 0.40 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.58 | 1.70 |
| Stat | East Tennessee State | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.13 |
| Success rate | 43.6% | 38.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 46.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 14.0% |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 2.26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.96 | 4.18 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.4 | 58.9 |
| Stat | East Tennessee State | The Citadel |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.25 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.3% | 37.9% |
| Passing success rate | 43.1% | 39.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2% | 21.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.3% | 23.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4% | 34.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 34.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4% | 43.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.1% | 36.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.4% | 67.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Tennessee State schedule · The Citadel schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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