Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Carolina 34.5, East Tennessee State 33.5 at William B. Greene Jr. Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Western Carolina wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 68 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Western Carolina is 2-2, scoring 33 and allowing 31.3 points per game (+1.7 per game). East Tennessee State is 2-2, scoring 30.8 and allowing 31.3 points per game (-0.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Carolina by 24 and East Tennessee State by 22 about 80% of the time.
East Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Western Carolina is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Western Carolina 31, East Tennessee State 58. East Tennessee State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 28 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Carolina / East Tennessee State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Tennessee State -1.5 | 62.5 → 63.5 | +103 / -128 |
| DraftKings | East Tennessee State -1.5 | 62.5 → 63.5 | +103 / -128 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | East Tennessee State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Carolina -1 | 68.0 | 47% |
| Market consensus | East Tennessee State -1.5 | 63.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | East Tennessee State -1 | 63.5 | 53% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- East Tennessee State win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Western Carolina -1 · market East Tennessee State -1.5 · difference -2.5 pts (East Tennessee State view)
- Total
- model 68.0 · market 63.5 · difference +4.5
Model margin is 2.5 pts more toward Western Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Carolina 34.5, East Tennessee State 33.5 | Western Carolina 53%wrong winner | 28.0 | 21.0 |
| New formula | Western Carolina 33.5, East Tennessee State 32.4 | Western Carolina 53%wrong winner | 28.0 | 23.1 |
Final: Western Carolina 31, East Tennessee State 58. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Carolina vs East Tennessee State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Carolina | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.6 | 32.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.5 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.40 | 6.18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.50 | 5.62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.8 | 212.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.0 | 241.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 207.6 | 156.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.2 | 253.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.09 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.55 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.91 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.27 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Western Carolina | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 45.1% | 43.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8% | 43.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.8% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.57 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.67 | 3.96 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.1 | 73.4 |
| Stat | Western Carolina | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.8% | 46.3% |
| Passing success rate | 47.9% | 43.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 15.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2% | 30.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.8% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.9% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.0% | 38.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.4% | 68.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.9% | 61.4% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Carolina schedule · East Tennessee State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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