Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Tennessee State 45.6, VMI 9.2 at Foster Stadium in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: East Tennessee State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 36.4 points and 54.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
East Tennessee State is 5-2, scoring 32.7 and allowing 25 points per game (+7.7 per game). VMI is 0-7, scoring 9.1 and allowing 41.7 points per game (-32.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Tennessee State by 59 and East Tennessee State by 14 about 80% of the time.
VMI gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. East Tennessee State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: East Tennessee State 38, VMI 0. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.6 points and the total by 16.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | East Tennessee State 45.6, VMI 9.2 | East Tennessee State 99%right winner | 1.6 | 16.7 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: East Tennessee State 38, VMI 0. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
East Tennessee State vs VMI: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | East Tennessee State | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.5 | 15.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8 | 37.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.18 | 5.16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62 | 7.10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 212.1 | 116.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.6 | 196.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8 | 224.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 253.3 | 265.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.58 | 2.75 |
| Stat | East Tennessee State | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 43.6% | 34.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 47.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 9.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 14.2% |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 10.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8% | 14.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 2.32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.96 | 4.13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.4 | 60.6 |
| Stat | East Tennessee State | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.29 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.3% | 31.8% |
| Passing success rate | 43.1% | 35.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2% | 25.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.3% | 26.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4% | 35.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.1% | 29.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4% | 46.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.1% | 47.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.4% | 62.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Tennessee State schedule · VMI schedule · all Week 8 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.