Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected East Tennessee State 34.4, West Georgia 23.7 at William B. Greene Jr. Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: East Tennessee State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.7 points and 58.1 combined points.
West Georgia is 0-3, scoring 5.7 and allowing 41 points per game (-35.3 per game). East Tennessee State is 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 32.7 points per game (-3.4 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Georgia by 12 and East Tennessee State by 33 about 80% of the time.
East Tennessee State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour East Tennessee State by about 8.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: West Georgia 27, East Tennessee State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.7 points and the total by 3.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Georgia / East Tennessee State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | East Tennessee State -16.5 | 53.5 | +450 / -680 |
| DraftKings | East Tennessee State -16.5 | 53.5 | +450 / -680 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | East Tennessee State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | East Tennessee State -10.5 | 58.1 | 76% |
| Market consensus | East Tennessee State -16.5 | 53.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | East Tennessee State -15.5 | 54.3 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- East Tennessee State win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model East Tennessee State -10.7 · market East Tennessee State -16.5 · difference -5.8 pts (East Tennessee State view)
- Total
- model 58.1 · market 53.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 5.8 pts more toward West Georgia than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Georgia 23.7, East Tennessee State 34.4 | East Tennessee State 76%right winner | 2.7 | 3.9 |
| New formula | West Georgia 20.8, East Tennessee State 34.9 | East Tennessee State 82%right winner | 6.1 | 6.3 |
Final: West Georgia 27, East Tennessee State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
West Georgia vs East Tennessee State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | West Georgia | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.5 | 32.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.2 | 28.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 6.18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46 | 5.62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 228.1 | 212.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.3 | 241.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.9 | 156.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.5 | 253.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 1.42 |
| Sacks per game | 2.82 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.55 | 2.58 |
| Stat | West Georgia | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 40.2% | 43.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 37.7% | 43.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| Havoc rate | 14.6% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.51 | 3.96 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.8 | 73.4 |
| Stat | West Georgia | East Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.5% | 46.3% |
| Passing success rate | 38.6% | 43.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 15.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2% | 30.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4% | 31.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.4% | 40.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1% | 38.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 68.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 39.0% | 61.4% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: West Georgia schedule · East Tennessee State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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